#日本央行加息政策 Seeing Arthur Hayes's assertion, I was reminded of a pitfall I fell into a few years ago. Back then, I was also captivated by the predictions of big influencers—claims like prices will definitely rise to a certain level, or policies will definitely turn out a certain way—only to find the market often moves in the opposite direction.

The idea of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates seems logically clear on the surface: rate hike → yen appreciation → dollar depreciation → Bitcoin as a hedge asset rises. But there's a problem we tend to overlook: this logic assumes the market will behave according to textbook economics. In reality, there’s always a time lag and emotional gap between central bank policy implementation and market reaction.

Most importantly, when you see precise predictions like "X will fall to 200, Y will rise to a million," you should ask yourself: is this analysis or just storytelling? Historically, those who make a living from predictions—what happened to them in the end? When risks emerge, they end up losing everything, even their underwear.

My advice is to treat such viewpoints as references rather than commandments. The ones who truly survive are never those betting solely on a guru’s prediction, but those who understand policy cycles, recognize their own risk tolerance, and bet on what is certain. The direction of the Bank of Japan is indeed worth paying attention to, but don’t bet all your chips on a seemingly attractive number.