According to Kalshi's prediction market data, there's currently a 70% probability that Somaliland will be formally recognized before 2029. Some analysts argue this timeline could compress significantly—potentially within the next two years. The speculation hinges on geopolitical calculations and domestic political dynamics that could accelerate such recognition decisions. Prediction markets like Kalshi offer an interesting lens on how traders assess low-probability but high-impact geopolitical events, and this particular market reflects broader shifts in how alternative data sources inform political forecasting.