Looking at the recent RIVER market movement, it's quite interesting. The current price is at 16.986 USDT, but the story behind it is worth a detailed analysis.

**Who is pushing the price up? Where are the costs?**

According to on-chain data, the main driver of this rally is a whale long position, with an average opening cost of 14 USDT. The current price is 21.3% above this cost line, which looks comfortable, but the problem is—whales have net sold 13.94M USDT in the past 7 days, quietly cashing out. This signal couldn't be clearer.

**What will happen in the short term?**

While retail investors are still chasing higher prices, whale sell-offs could happen at any moment. Once the 14 USDT cost line is broken, there’s little support below. I give a 95% probability that the price will drop to the 10-12 USDT range within 24 hours, for a simple reason: the chips are highly concentrated in whales' hands, with no support below.

**And further down the line?**

After whales finish unloading, since this coin lacks fundamental support, the price will likely continue to decline. It’s normal to see a retracement to 8-10 USDT within 3 to 7 days, and if the sell-off intensifies, it could even drop to 5-8 USDT. Probability: 90%.

**How to operate?**

For those currently holding long positions, immediately set a stop-loss at 14 USDT; if it breaks, get out—don’t expect a rebound. For those out of the market, don’t chase the high, and don’t try to bottom fish above 14 USDT. If you’re bearish, you can consider a small short position at 16-17 USDT, with a stop-loss at 18 USDT.