An counterintuitive judgment:

2026 might actually be the true starting point of the bull market.

During a New Year’s gathering with a seasoned trader friend, he shared a perspective that directly overturned my understanding of a “bull market.”

Many people believe:
The past two years have already been a bull market—
memes, inscriptions, new narratives taking turns,
occasionally someone gets rich overnight.

But his judgment is quite the opposite:
These two years are more like the “second half transition period” of a bear market.

Why do I say that?

1️⃣ Focus on mainstream coins, not the hype.

Except for Bitcoin truly breaking out of its trend,
most mainstream assets are either sideways, declining,
or just recovering slightly before falling again.
To be blunt:
Most people’s actual holdings are still in the bear market.

2️⃣ Focus on sentiment, not stories.

A real bull market is noisy.
What about now?
Secondary groups are generally quiet, silent, and mostly onlookers.
When most people start “not speaking,”
it often means:
The market hasn’t truly started yet.

3️⃣ Look at the profit-making effect—whether it’s “widespread.”

The wealth creation over these two years,
mainly concentrated in the primary market and early narrative arbitrage.
Inscriptions, memes, whitelists, insider setups—
ordinary people see the results,
but only a very few truly profit.

And a real bull market should be:

Mainstream takes off → Altcoins fully launch → Profit effect spills over.
It’s not about a few hot spots holding up the market,
but about market-wide rotation.

So his conclusion is:

2026 might not be a continued bear market,
but the year when the bull market truly begins.

After hearing this, I realized:
We think we’re in a bull market,
but we might still be in— the “preheating” phase.

Maybe the smartest thing now isn’t to rush blindly,
but to consolidate understanding, build capacity,
and save your bullets for when it’s really time to go all in.

Do you think the true bull market has already started?