Delayed labor market data: September report released today

The long wait is finally over – the US labor market data for September will be released today. These figures were originally expected in early October, but the unprecedented US federal government shutdown prevented the scheduled release and caused significant delays in the statistical reporting.

Expected figures indicate a cooling of the labor market

The projected data for September paint a nuanced picture of the American labor market: The number of non-farm payrolls is expected to have increased by 50,000 jobs. This is an increase compared to August (when 22,000 new jobs were added), but overall suggests a more moderate employment development, indicating signs of a market slowdown.

Stability in the unemployment rate is expected. Analysts anticipate it remaining unchanged at 4.3 percent. Regarding wage growth, experts expect an increase of 0.3 percent in the average hourly wages compared to the previous month. This would keep the annualized wage growth rate at 4.7 percent.

Organizational challenges for the October report

Special attention is warranted for the fact that no labor market data will be published for October at all. The reason for this is the impossibility of data collection during the household survey reference period affected by the budget crisis. The surveys of the Current Population Survey (CPS), on which such labor market reports are based, could not be conducted in October 2025 due to budget cuts making fieldwork impossible.

This extraordinary situation underscores the impact of the government funding crisis on the key economic indicators and the statistical system of the USA.