In the first week of 2026, a "setting the tone" game is unfolding. Major economic data are bombarding the market one after another, and the non-farm employment report is about to become the key factor in rewriting expectations.

What is the current market consensus? Non-farm job gains are only 55,000. But how will this play out when it lands? If it falls within the 50,000-80,000 range, it will be seen as "perfectly weak" by the market—giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates, and risk assets will immediately celebrate. Conversely, if it drops into the terrifying 0-40,000 range, the dream of a "soft landing" will be shattered, and recession fears will instantly engulf the entire market.

Strangely, most people's attitudes are deeply divided: bullish voices are endless, but no one dares to bet real money. What's really going on? One detail is hard to ignore—since the leadership change at the U.S. Department of Labor, key data seem to always "just right" favor the stock market. This non-farm report, according to historical patterns, is likely to continue this trend.

The ultimate wager between the market and the Federal Reserve has already been laid out: the market is betting on two rate cuts in 2026, but the Fed is only willing to loosen once, and internal disagreements are still raging. Just after the New Year, Philadelphia Fed President poured cold water, saying "rate cuts will have to wait," leaving no room for misunderstanding—the message is clear: don’t rush me, the pace is in my hands.

The entire market is now focused on two core variables: the US dollar index and market direction. Although the dollar has risen in the new year, everyone generally thinks this is just a technical rebound, and no one truly believes the dollar will dominate again. The problem is, the more everyone "collectively disbelieves," the more dangerous it becomes—if the dollar really continues to strengthen, a scenario where short-sellers are forced to panic and flee will unfold.

Over on the US stock side, things are even more awkward. After rising for three years, the market is now stuck at high levels, unable to move. The indices keep approaching historical highs but never break through, with valuations floating in the stratosphere. Everyone is waiting for a signal in one direction—daring neither to short nor to chase the rally.

This week is truly more than just about ups and downs. It aims to answer a fundamental question for the market: how long can this "everything is normal" show go on?