Is the Benner Cycle Still Relevant for Crypto Traders in 2025?

Individual traders operating in today’s volatile markets are desperately searching for reliable signals to guide their positioning. Among the various forecasting methodologies circulating in crypto communities, one historical tool has resurfaced with surprising prominence: the Benner Cycle—an economic framework crafted nearly 150 years ago that some argue remains eerily predictive of major market inflection points.

The Origins and Framework of an Ancient Forecasting Tool

Samuel Benner, a farmer who sustained substantial losses during the 1873 financial collapse, became obsessed with understanding market rhythms. Rather than relying on complex derivatives pricing models, he studied agricultural commodity cycles—patterns he witnessed firsthand in crop markets. In 1875, Benner documented his findings in Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, presenting what would become known as the Benner Cycle.

His methodology was deceptively simple. Benner hypothesized that solar activity influenced agricultural yields, which subsequently drove price movements. He constructed three key indicators:

• Line A denotes panic years when liquidation accelerates
• Line B identifies peak years, traditionally optimal windows for distribution
• Line C marks trough periods—moments of maximum accumulation opportunity

Before his death, Benner annotated his chart with two words that still resonate today: “Absolute certainty.”

Historical Track Record and Modern Believers

What makes the Benner Cycle particularly compelling to contemporary analysts is its apparent alignment with major financial dislocations. According to Wealth Management Canada’s assessment, the framework has closely correlated with epochal events—including the 1929 Great Depression, the 2000 tech bubble, and the 2020 pandemic crash—typically deviating by only a few years.

High-profile crypto commentator Panos recently highlighted this pattern, arguing that the Benner Cycle successfully flagged the Great Depression, World War II economic disruptions, the internet collapse, and COVID-19’s market shock. According to Panos’s analysis, 2023 represented an ideal accumulation window, while 2026 emerges as the projected peak for the next major cycle phase.

This projection has galvanized retail communities. If the Benner Cycle holds, 2025–2026 should witness intensifying speculation in AI-related cryptocurrencies and emerging sectors before inevitable mean reversion. Trader mikewho.eth suggests this window could amplify volatility and synthetic hype before the anticipated downturn materializes.

Mounting Skepticism and Market Reality

However, recent macroeconomic developments are severely testing faith in the Benner Cycle’s predictive power. Trump’s tariff announcements in early April triggered a violent market correction, with total crypto capitalization plummeting from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion on April 7—a day some labeled “Black Monday.” Simultaneously, institutional forecasters have grown decidedly pessimistic: JPMorgan elevated its recession probability to 60% for 2025, while Goldman Sachs raised its contraction forecast to 45% within 12 months—the highest assessment since post-2021 inflation cycles.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has openly dismissed the Benner Cycle as unreliable, tweeting that such historical frameworks function as distractions rather than actionable trading signals. “I can’t trade long or short on this specific chart,” Brandt stated, “so it’s all fantasy.”

Why Some Still Believe Despite the Headwinds

Despite mounting economic headwinds and market behavior contradicting the Benner Cycle’s optimistic narrative, a cohort of believers remains committed. Investor Crynet articulated this perspective: “This gives us one more year if history repeats itself. Markets transcend numerical abstractions—they embody collective psychology, institutional memory, and momentum cascades. Sometimes these ancient charts work not through magic, but because sufficient market participants act upon them.”

This self-fulfilling prophecy dynamic matters. Google Trends data reveals search interest in the Benner Cycle peaked sharply in recent months, reflecting widespread institutional and retail appetite for bullish narratives amid intensifying geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The tension persists: does the Benner Cycle possess genuine forecasting merit, or does its power derive entirely from the conviction of those who trade it? For now, markets await the cycle’s ultimate test—whether 2026 truly materializes as the predicted apex.