## USDT Exchange Rate Falls Below 7: Bearish Signal or Low-Level Opportunity?

The USDT price continues to weaken, showing a drop to around 6.82 on the market, which is over a 3% discount compared to the normal official rate of 7. Looking back half a year, USDT was still around 7.4, meaning that assets held in stablecoins have quietly depreciated by over 10%. This is not simply a technical issue but reflects deeper changes in the entire crypto ecosystem.

**Dual Factors Behind Exchange Rate Fluctuations**

The price volatility of USDT is actually driven by two forces. One is the USD to RMB exchange rate trend, and the other is internal supply and demand imbalances within the crypto ecosystem. Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, and the USD is relatively weakening, which theoretically benefits holders—an increase in RMB purchasing power means more crypto assets can be bought with the same amount of RMB. But the reality is the opposite: USDT is not only depreciating along with the USD but also trading at an additional discount within the crypto space, which is a warning sign.

**RMB Users Exit Causing Worsening Negative Premium**

The fundamental reason for the current negative premium is a shift in market sentiment. A large number of RMB users are choosing to exchange USDT back to RMB and exit, causing a sudden supply imbalance and further pressure on the USDT price. Simultaneously, the market information buzz has plummeted—KOLs who once relied on advertising revenue are returning to traditional jobs. This is not a sign of a bull market emerging but rather a continuation of bear market inertia.

**Trading Opportunities and Risk Assessment**

Against this backdrop, smaller coins like ZEC ($504.30) and BCH ($644.61) are showing repeated attempts to top out. Based on the current market structure and exchange rate pressure, Bitcoin ($91.40K) may further test lower support levels, even challenging the $60,000 mark or lower. No one can precisely determine the bottom in a bear market, but patience and structural confirmation can help us seize entry opportunities.

Recent slight rebounds cannot change the overall downward trend and may instead serve as opportunities to reduce positions at high levels or establish short positions. For smaller coins, if they approach previous highs again, there is still operational value. Overall, the continued weakening of the USDT exchange rate provides a sufficient time window to build positions in the bottom zone for next year. Stable and disciplined trading strategies are more crucial than betting on any single rebound.