The $91.4K Test: 6.6M Bitcoin in Loss Creates Massive Supply Overhang

Bitcoin faces a critical supply overhang as over 6.6 million BTC—roughly a third of circulating supply—sits underwater at current prices. With BTC trading at $91.4K, significantly below its October peak of $126.08K, this mounting inventory of loss-making positions poses a major question for the market: will holders rush to exit, or exercise patience?

Understanding the Supply In Loss Indicator

The “Supply In Loss” metric reveals the blockchain’s hidden pressure point. This on-chain indicator tracks every Bitcoin currently trading below the price at which it last exchanged hands. By analyzing transaction history and comparing previous transfer prices to today’s spot price, the metric identifies coins experiencing net unrealized losses.

Think of it this way: if you bought BTC at $95K and it’s now at $91.4K, your coin gets counted in this supply pool. Aggregate all such positions across the network, and you get approximately 6.6 million BTC sitting in the red.

When ATH Meets Reality

The dramatic swing in this metric tells a story. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $126K in October, the Supply In Loss indicator crashed to near-zero—virtually every holder was in profit. Fast forward a few months, and that same metric has surged to represent roughly 33% of circulating supply. This represents the heaviest concentration of losses since 2023, signaling genuine market distress.

The Breakeven Trap and Its Consequences

Here’s the psychological dynamic that matters: investors holding losses don’t think in terms of market price. They think about their entry point. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart shows that significant Bitcoin supply is clustered at certain historical price levels—these are the “breakeven zones” where buyers desperately hope the market will return.

When Bitcoin bounces back toward these levels, two outcomes become likely:

First, profit-taking accelerates. Holders finally seeing green seize the opportunity to exit, creating sudden selling pressure.

Second, stop-losses trigger below these zones during downturns, amplifying volatility.

Either way, this concentrated supply overhang becomes a resistance layer that prices must navigate carefully. The tighter this clustering, the more explosive the potential price swings.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Next Move

With 19.97 million BTC in circulation and 6.6 million in loss positions, the supply dynamics remain tilted toward caution. Any significant rally toward $95K-$100K could unleash waves of profit-taking. Conversely, sustained pressure below current levels risks cascading losses as the market loses confidence.

The critical zone isn’t the headline price—it’s the density of underwater positions and the psychological threshold where holders’ patience finally breaks. Bitcoin’s ability to decisively break above or below these overhang levels will likely determine the next major directional move.