DOGE Dogecoin 4-Hour Chart In-Depth Analysis: Three Support Levels Under the Death Cross Signal

Market Status and Urgency

Dogecoin (DOGE) is under obvious short-term pressure, currently trading around $0.15, with a change of +7.27%. The key question is: what will be the next development? Through an in-depth analysis of the 4-hour chart, we can identify several decisive technical signals.

Technical Deep Dive — Why Has the Trend Not Yet Established a Bottom?

First, look at the arrangement of moving averages. From MA5 (0.126) to MA200 (0.142), all moving averages show a standard bearish alignment, with the price fully suppressed below the moving average cluster. This structure indicates that it is not a simple correction, but a complete downtrend is in progress.

The MACD indicator also signals danger. The yellow and white lines are deeply below the zero line, with a value staying at -0.001, meaning the medium- to short-term trend is entirely controlled by bears, and even the initial rebound momentum has not yet appeared; the green bars remain dormant at the bottom.

Looking at other key indicators: RSI is at 37.9, still some room before entering the oversold zone (below 30), suggesting downward momentum still has strength; Williams %R is at -67, maintaining distance from the extreme oversold level (-80); most notably, the ADX indicator is at 43.2, indicating the current downtrend’s strength is considerable and not a weak oscillation.

Two Possible Future Scenarios

In the context of stable volume and lack of incremental capital inflow, with all indicators green, the probability of DOGE strongly rebounding to the 0.134 or 0.14 range is very low, not exceeding 10%.

Scenario one is a gradual decline. The price oscillates between 0.125 and 0.119, gradually eroding bullish resistance, eventually approaching the first support at 0.119. This is a typical process of time-for-space bottoming.

Scenario two is a rapid test. If the overall market weakens, DOGE could quickly drop to 0.115, or even test the bottom support zone at 0.113. In this case, the decline would be faster, but the bottom characteristics would be more distinct.

Compared to the gradual decline scenario, the probability of the slow decline is higher. However, regardless of the scenario, until a clear sign of stabilization appears, any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce positions rather than a buy signal.

Specific Strategies for Three Types of Holders

For investors heavily long with costs above 0.13, the pain of cutting losses at this stage is indeed hard to bear, but rushing to add positions is not advisable. The correct approach is to patiently wait for the price to stabilize at a support level, and only consider re-entering when the hourly chart confirms no new lows are being made.

For traders with light positions aiming to bottom-fish, small amounts of capital can be deployed around 0.119 or 0.115 in batches. Each time the price drops by about 3%, gradually add to the position. This approach helps lower the average cost and controls risk exposure.

For those in full cash or on the sidelines, they should wait for clear right-side trading signals. When the price volume stabilizes above 0.128 (MA5) and maintains for some time, then consider participating. At that point, the safety margin will be higher.

Conclusion

Opportunities always exist in the market; the key is to grasp the rhythm and boundaries. Monitoring DOGE’s future requires attention to both on-chain capital movements and the true technical reactions. Calm analysis and strict adherence to trading discipline are the best ways to protect capital during this correction.