The "rebound scenario" for Bitcoin is becoming more plausible — a major shift in market sentiment is beginning toward 2026.

Is the underperformance of the crypto market merely a temporary phenomenon? Compared to the recovery of gold (+9%) and stocks (S&P 500: +1%) since November, Bitcoin has declined by about 20%, hovering around $91.23K. While this divergence appears pessimistic on the surface, on-chain data and market intelligence analysis suggest that Bitcoin is actually setting the stage for a strong rebound.

The stage is set for “catch-up”—turning points indicated by whale behavior

The latest data reported by market intelligence firm Santiment sends an important signal. Large Bitcoin holders (whales) are slowing their accumulation pace in the second half of 2025, while small wallet purchase activity is increasing. This pattern aligns with the late-stage distribution phase in traditional cycle theories.

Even more noteworthy is the shift in long-term holders’ selling behavior. After actively selling, their holdings decreased from 14.8 million BTC in July to 14.3 million BTC in December, and then stabilized. This divergence suggests a critical signal: a split between capitulation (market psychology of despair among speculators) and conviction among long-term holders.

Gareth Jin, former CEO of BitForex, pointed out the increase in on-chain activity as an early signal. According to Nansen data, active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.5% over 24 hours, while transaction counts decreased—indicating a pattern related to accumulation rather than speculation. “The short squeeze in metals is over. Capital is starting to return to crypto,” Jin stated.

From leading to lagging—historical patterns suggest possible developments

An interesting insight comes from Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital. “Gold has led Bitcoin by about 26 weeks. The consolidation in gold last summer is very similar to Bitcoin’s pause today. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow, but with greater momentum.”

Looking at year-to-date performance, gold has risen about 70%, silver about 150%, while Bitcoin has declined about 6%. This “depreciation trade” has caused asset allocation distortions, which in turn suggest room for capital rotation.

In fact, analysis from Kobeissi Letter indicates that gold has exceeded its 200-day moving average for about 550 consecutive trading sessions—second-longest streak on record, after the period following the 2008 financial crisis. This unusual bullishness could signal saturation of traditional hedge demand.

Market outlook for 2026—probability of Bitcoin “catching up”

Futures markets reflect changing market sentiment. The Polymarket prediction for the highest performing asset in 2026 is as follows:

• Bitcoin: 40%
• Gold: 33%
• Stocks: 25%

Sentiment analysts note that as liquidity conditions improve and macro risks increase, Bitcoin may resume its historical role, surpassing both gold and stocks.

Market observer CyrilXBT describes the current environment as “a typical late-cycle positioning before a shift,” adding, “Markets often move before the story catches up.”

Capital rotation is beginning—realistic catch-up scenario

The conclusion from sentiment analysis is clear: “Crypto still has a very real opportunity to catch up.” With whale selling slowing, long-term holders stabilizing, and early-stage capital rotation signals emerging, 2026 could see Bitcoin closing the gap and once again surpassing traditional hedges.