Do you remember that market surge in spring 2025? After Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuated around 85,000, riding the wave of some positive news, it forcefully surged to 120,000. Many who had entered around 85,000 already realized substantial gains.

Looking at the current trend on the candlestick chart, the area around 87,000 is also filled with chips, with a narrow fluctuation pattern that closely resembles spring last year. But here’s a cold splash of water: history repeating itself is not inevitable; it depends on one key factor—the market whether has found the true "trigger switch."

Let’s first review the logic from spring 2025. At that time, the market also experienced a period of decline followed by consolidation, with massive chip turnover completed around 85,000, and the cost structure was almost identical to now. What’s the real difference? Back then, there was a clear strong narrative. News about negotiations was coming continuously, market sentiment kept being ignited, and the willingness of funds to enter was very strong. Simply put: ample buildup + certain positive news = inevitable sharp rise.

The current situation is much more awkward. Some expectations that everyone previously anticipated have been repeatedly dashed; the "wolf is coming" warnings have been too frequent, and the market has long become immune. Geopolitical factors are also old news; what once triggered a few waves of rise and fall now no longer even warrants attention. The market has fallen into a subtle deadlock: bad news seems to have been digested almost completely, but good news still remains elusive.

This is also why I believe it’s very difficult to replicate that kind of explosive rally in the short term. The work of accumulating chips has been done thoroughly, but the trigger that could ignite the entire market has yet to be found. Without clear positive support, relying solely on the similarity of chip structures is not enough to sustain a decent rally.