Can ETH truly break through $10,000? Unveiling the numbers game and risks behind the predictions

“Ethereum ETH will surge to $10,000 in 2026”—such predictions are everywhere, but how many people have truly thought about what lies behind this beautiful number? When market consensus focuses on the same goal, it is often also the time when risks are most concentrated. It’s not that predictions themselves are problematic, but that most participants do not fully understand the rules of this number game.

💣 The Most Hidden Pitfall: Surface Prosperity vs. On-Chain Reality

Suppose ETH really reaches $10,000 in 2026, you need to be alert to a phenomenon: Price hits a new high, but the ecosystem is in decline.

According to the latest data, the current circulating market cap of Ethereum has reached $378.24B, but the TVL of the DeFi ecosystem has fallen from $72.5B to $48.3B, a decline of over 33%. What does this imply?

If ETH skyrockets to $10,000 in the next two years, but you see these signals, you should be especially cautious:

• On-chain activity declines: Layer 2 daily transaction volume shows no substantial growth, new user retention stagnates
• Developer migration: Emerging projects and developers continue to prefer deploying on ecosystems like Solana
• Abnormal capital structure: The $10,000 price is mainly driven by spot ETFs and institutional funds, not real on-chain demand

In this scenario, the $10,000 you see might just be the final act of a numbers game—institutions pushing the price up to sell off, retail investors buying at high levels, and then a long-term decline back to $5,000 or even $3,000.

📊 How are prediction numbers generated?

Various market speculations all follow a few套路:

Historical cycle extrapolation
Many analyses directly apply the logic of the 2021 bull market: ETH increased by X times last cycle, so this cycle they project the same ratio. But they ignore key variables—2021 lacked spot ETF capital inflows, Layer 2 ecosystems were far from mature, and the market competition landscape was completely different. Using past patterns to predict the future is essentially a numbers game.

Technical analysis extrapolation
Breakout points on candlestick charts, Fibonacci retracement levels, support and resistance levels… these can provide references, but they cannot predict policy shifts, regulatory black swans, technological breakthroughs, or the rise of competitors. Technical analysis can suggest “possible,” but not “certain.”

Institutional entry assumptions
Market entry of Wall Street funds, continuous ETF inflows, institutional allocation needs… these sound convincing. But the problem is, institutional entry to push prices higher doesn’t mean they will stay “HODL” with you. They have complete exit strategies; when retail investors buy at high levels, it’s exactly when they start to exit in batches.

⏰ Time lag: You predict correctly, but you still lose

Suppose ETH ultimately reaches $10,000, but the path is unlikely to be a straight line:

Possible scenarios

• Q1 2026: Price surges to $6,000, market frenzy, many retail investors FOMO chasing high
• Q2-Q3 2026: Correction to $3,500, early high-position holders are deeply trapped
• Q4 2026: Finally breaks through $10,000

During this process, most retail investors will chase at $6,000, cut losses at $3,500, and end up watching $10,000 become irrelevant to them. Meanwhile, those with ample capital and strong psychological resilience will have weathered the correction and fully enjoyed the final ascent.

This explains why “predictions are correct, but most people still lose money”—it’s not that the prediction is flawed, but that the timing and mindset of participation are problematic.

🎯 Your mistakes might be in these areas

Leverage chasing to self-destruct
Seeing the prediction of $10,000, some open 10x or 20x leverage. During a 30% fluctuation, they get liquidated. ETH eventually hits $10,000, but their account is wiped out long before.

Classic chase and sell at a loss
Waiting on the sidelines at $4,000, thinking “this is too expensive”; FOMO in at $7,000; panic-sell at $5,000. ETH reaches $10,000 as predicted, but your cost basis was $7,000, and you got shaken out three times in between, ending with no profit.

Being tempted by altcoins
Seeing ETH’s growth is slow, switching to “Ethereum ecosystem concept coins” or “next 100x coins.” When ETH finally starts rising, you’re already trapped in various air coins, which eventually go to zero, and the real gains are out of reach.

✅ If you decide to allocate to ETH, here’s how you should do it

1. Dollar-cost averaging, avoid all-in
Buy in multiple batches in the $3,000–$4,000 range (currently at $3.13K, which is reasonable), avoiding the fantasy of catching the absolute bottom, and not chasing high impulsively at breakout.

2. Set clear take-profit and stop-loss points
Take profit by reducing 20-30% at $6,000; execute stop-loss decisively when the price falls below your set level. Don’t deceive yourself into thinking “it will definitely come back.”

3. Focus on on-chain data rather than emotional predictions
DeFi TVL trends, Layer 2 activity, developer activity, ETF fund flows—these indicators are far more convincing than “some analyst says it will rise.”

4. Keep some dry powder outside the market
No matter what, keep 50% of your funds in reserve outside. If the price really hits $10,000, you have ammunition to add; if it crashes, you won’t lose everything.

🔮 Final thoughts

Reaching $10,000 ETH in 2026? Possible, but the probability is much lower than market expectations of certainty. More importantly, whether this prediction becomes your profit map or a trap depends entirely on how you understand and use it.

The market will never operate according to “predictions.” It evolves based on real supply and demand, participant sentiment, capital flows, and competitive landscape—these fundamental forces. Those who make big money are not because they believe a number is beautiful, but because they see the game rules clearly and respond calmly within them.

Remember: In 2026, may you not be the retail investor buying at the $10,000 high.