The global economy's "dependence on China" is not just a slogan, but an unavoidable reality—The truth revealed by 2025 data

By the end of 2025, when policymakers around the world finally sit down to do the math carefully, a deliberately avoided conclusion surfaces: the global economy has become deeply intertwined with China’s capacity, technology, and market depth. The idea of “de-Chinaization” is not a technological issue but an economic self-destruct. Western alliances that once loudly called for “decoupling and breaking chains” now fall into an awkward silence—because they finally realize that without China, the modern global economy cannot move at all.

An “Earthquake” in Economic Perception

The story begins with a data point. In 2024, China’s manufacturing value-added accounts for nearly 30% of the global total—this is not just a number; what does it mean? The combined manufacturing output of the US, Japan, and Germany—the three most developed manufacturing nations—still does not surpass that of China alone.

Among the top 500 industrial products worldwide, China holds the first place in over 220 categories. From the tiniest needle and thread to industrial heavy machinery weighing hundreds of tons, China is a critical node in the supply chain’s capillaries and main arteries. This is not boastfulness; it is cold, hard industrial reality.

The problem is that Western countries have been researching “alternatives” since 2018—can Vietnam replace China? Costs are three times higher; can India step in? The industrial chain is incomplete; what about other Southeast Asian countries? Lacking infrastructure and technological accumulation. Eight years have passed, and “decoupling” has shifted from a strategic vision to an economic fantasy.

New Energy: China’s “Dimensionality Reduction” Strategy Leaves the West Passive

The story of global energy transition vividly illustrates this issue.

China accounts for 70% of the world’s photovoltaic modules; 60% of wind power equipment. Under the push of climate agreements, the EU has aggressively expanded renewable energy installations, only to find that their dependence on Chinese manufacturing has reached 98%—85% of Portugal’s solar panels come from Chinese factories.

Even more painfully, Europe’s domestic energy production, even at full capacity, can only meet 15%-20% of global new energy demand. Where is the gap? All filled by China.

BYD is building factories in Hungary, CATL plans a 100GWh battery plant, followed by a complete supply chain—this is not just investment and factory construction; it is building an ecosystem of Chinese industrial standards at the heart of Europe. To replace China? Only if Europe is willing to start over, which would take ten years and trillions of euros. No one dares to gamble that way.

German automakers’ EV sales in China surged by 63%. The brutal logic behind this figure: China is not only the world’s largest new energy vehicle market but also the only supply base for core components (especially batteries). For German automakers, “de-Chinaization” equals abandoning the future of new energy industries.

Minerals and Batteries: The “Lifeline” of Global New Energy

China controls 87% of rare earth processing; 78% of lithium refining and processing; 65% of cobalt. Anodes account for 84.1% of battery materials, cathodes 68.2%, and 74.6% of the entire battery industry chain output is in China.

What does this mean? It means any country wanting to develop the new energy industry must kneel and beg China for key raw materials. The US is trying to establish domestic rare earth mining and refining capabilities, but costs are five times higher than China’s, environmental pressures are greater, and so far, no scaled production capacity has formed.

In 2024, China’s lithium battery exports accounted for 54.9% of the global total, and pure electric vehicle exports made up 24.7%. Without China, the global adoption of new energy vehicles would be delayed by at least half. This is not Chinese self-promotion; it is an objective reflection of the global supply chain.

Infrastructure: “Chinese Standards” Taking Root Globally

The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail has been operational for two years. How has it performed? Over 12 million passengers transported, with a peak daily capacity of 26,700 people. The original three-hour journey has been compressed to 46 minutes. It has become Indonesia’s busiest rail line.

More importantly, it has driven economic effects—Karawang station’s surroundings have become a hub for foreign investment, hundreds of small and micro enterprises have emerged along the line, and over 500,000 international tourists have visited specifically for this high-speed rail. This is the multiplier effect of infrastructure investment.

How harsh is Indonesia’s climate? Heavy rains, earthquakes, complex geology. The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail has safely operated over 5.65 million kilometers, maintaining a punctuality rate above 95%. Such technical reliability is not accidental; it is backed by decades of operational experience.

Currently, over 30 countries are interested in building high-speed rail. Their final question is always: “Can we build it ourselves?” The answer is often: “Yes, but at triple the cost and a five-year longer cycle.” So, ultimately, they turn to China. This is not a technical monopoly; it is a comparative advantage.

Space: The Last Fortress of Western Monopoly Is Also Cracking

China’s space station is not only operating stably but also open to global use. The astronaut training agreement signed with Pakistan indicates that more and more foreign astronauts will perform missions aboard the Chinese space station in the future.

For countries without their own space stations, wanting to develop crewed space programs now means turning to China—breaking the old monopoly of the US and Russia. French media have had to admit that China’s breakthroughs in space have completely shattered the technological barriers maintained by the West for decades.

The Role of Economic Stabilizers: Why “Decoupling” Ultimately Fails

This is the most critical part. When we ask “Why can’t the world do without China,” the core answer is simple: China is not only the “world’s factory” but also the stabilizer of the global economy.

The US has been shouting for eight years about “manufacturing return,” but what is the result? China’s manufacturing share continues to rise, especially in key minerals and new energy vehicles, where alternatives simply do not exist. South Korea’s battery and automotive industries are highly dependent on Chinese supply chains; attempts to shift capacity are too costly and too slow. Japan’s high-end manufacturing relies on the Chinese market and components—“de-Chinaization” is equivalent to cutting off its own revenue sources.

A stark comment from German media: “China is the world’s factory and also the economic stabilizer.” When the financial departments of various countries finally sit down to do the math, they realize that the economic losses from excluding China are beyond what any single country can bear.

Epilogue: This Is Not China Begging to Be Needed, But the Global Realization of Reality

By the end of 2025, this “cognitive reset” essentially means the world has finally recognized the long-standing fact—China has long integrated into the blood system of the global economy. From Europe’s energy transition to Southeast Asia’s transportation upgrades, from daily industrial production to cutting-edge space exploration, China’s role has become indispensable.

Those once radical “doom-mongering” voices are now all jokes in the face of 2025 data. The future is not China begging to be needed by the world, but the world, based on recognizing China’s capacity, technology, and market realities, redesigning its own economic strategies.

This is not just a slogan; it is a list of data, and also the result of global countries’ tangible trade and investment votes.