Ethereum Token Dilemma: How the Ancient Whale's Cash-Out Cycle Impedes ETH's Upward Momentum

Ethereum prices repeatedly hit the 4000 USD barrier, but the real reasons behind this are often overlooked by investors. The issue isn’t technical progress or market sentiment, but rather the gradual release of pressure from ancient, low-cost on-chain chips.

Market Divergence Caused by Chip Cost Differences

According to on-chain data analysis, the average cost of Ethereum chips held for over 5 years is only USD. Compared to the current price of 3.13K USD, this has already yielded over 8 times profit. This huge profit margin directly translates into selling pressure in the market.

Three key moments in 2024 fully confirm this pattern:

• March 2024, ancient whales realized profits totaling 600 million USD in a single day
• June 2024, daily selling pressure surged to the billion USD level
• September to October 2025, ultra-long-term chips held for 7 years or more experienced daily selling pressures exceeding 500 million USD

Whenever ETH approaches the 4000 USD mark, this concentration of chips begins to cash out, leading to a phase adjustment in the market.

Ongoing Chip Transfer and an Unfinished Story

The turning point came in May 2024. The Ethereum Foundation began systematic buying, reflecting institutional confidence in long-term holding. From the perspective of chip concentration, the total amount of ancient chips with costs below 400 USD is indeed slowly decreasing, indicating some old chips are transferring to new holders.

However, the current situation remains pessimistic. According to the latest on-chain data, the top 10 addresses hold a concentration of 70.81%, and the top 20 addresses 73.30%, indicating that Ethereum’s chip distribution remains highly concentrated.

More critically, the ancient whales with costs below 400 USD still hold about 20.1 million ETH. Once this batch of chips is sold off on a large scale, it could cause a historic supply shock.

Short-term Resistance vs Long-term Opportunity

Ethereum’s value hasn’t shrunk, but its upward potential is constrained by the chip structure. Until the ancient chips are fully transferred, the 4000 to 5000 USD range will serve as a long-term resistance zone.

Investors need to re-examine this issue from the perspective of chip flow: in the short term, the existence of low-cost chips forms a hidden ceiling; in the long term, as this batch of chips is gradually absorbed by institutions and new capital, Ethereum may enter a new valuation phase.

To determine whether ETH can break through 5000 USD, one shouldn’t just ask about price targets but also about the progress of chip transfer. Understanding the chip structure in the market is far more meaningful than just watching candlestick charts.