When a corporate giant becomes vulnerable: how MicroStrategy could trigger a systemic crisis in the crypto market

Scale of Bitcoin Concentration in the Hands of a Single Company

Strategy owns 671,268 BTC — more than 3.2% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin. This makes the company the largest corporate holder of cryptocurrency, even surpassing the volumes of some Bitcoin ETFs. However, the scale of ownership is only part of the problem. The main issue is that the entire financial architecture of Strategy is built on a single asset, creating the potential for cascading collapse that could impact the entire market.

The company has invested over $50 billion in Bitcoin positions, financing purchases through aggressive mechanisms: issuance of common shares, convertible debt ( of over $8.2 billion ), and preferred instruments ( of more than $7.5 billion ). Meanwhile, the main operating income from the software business amounts to only about $460 million per year — a drop in the ocean compared to the capital raised.

Financial Structure as a Minefield

By the end of 2025, Strategy’s market capitalization was estimated at approximately $45 billion, while the fair value of the company’s Bitcoin reserves is around $59–60 billion. This discount is not accidental: the market already prices in concerns about dilution, debt obligations, and long-term sustainability of the model.

The average entry price for the company into its position is about $74 972 per coin, with a significant portion of recent purchases occurring during the peaks of the last quarter of 2025. At the current price of $91.17K, the company appears to be in profit on paper, but this does not eliminate the fundamental fragility of the structure. Over 95% of Strategy’s market valuation depends solely on the price of Bitcoin — practically no other factor influences the stock value.

Potential Collapse Mechanism

Annual interest and dividend payments amount to about $779 million. With current balances of $2.2 billion, the company can cover these expenses for two years without raising new funds. However, a sharp decline in Bitcoin would almost instantly evaporate this safety cushion.

The critical point will be if BTC falls below $13 000 — at this moment, the fair value of Bitcoin reserves will fall below the total debt load and other obligations. Although such a 86% drop from current levels seems unlikely in the short term, history shows that dips of 70–80% for the crypto market are not uncommon. In conditions of low liquidity, amplified by ETF flows and volatility, this could happen unexpectedly quickly.

A recent case demonstrated the leverage: when Bitcoin fell 20% from October 10, Strategy’s shares fell more than twice as much. This asymmetric reaction shows how heavily the company’s structure relies on financial leverage.

From Corporate Crisis to Systemic Risk

The fundamental difference between Strategy and FTX is that it is not an exchange or intermediary. It is the largest holder of the supply on the market. Forced liquidation of the position or panic caused by financial difficulties could trigger a domino effect across the entire ecosystem.

If even part of the reserves are sold under pressure, it could lower the price of Bitcoin, which would increase pressure on the company itself, creating a closed cycle. In such a shock, a broader sell-off in the crypto market is likely. The company previously promised not to sell Bitcoin, but such promises depend on the company’s ability to attract capital — and that ability could run out in a few quarters.

Additional pressure comes from institutional investors switching to Bitcoin ETFs — cheaper and more transparent instruments. The threat of exclusion from indices could also trigger passive outflows worth billions.

Probability and Scale of Consequences

A complete collapse of Strategy in 2026 is a probable event, though not the most likely. Conservative estimates put the probability at 10–20%, based on current balance sheet risk structures, Bitcoin volatility, and crypto market behavior.

If BTC falls below $50 000 and stays there, the market value of the company could fall below its debt obligations, completely stripping the company of the ability to raise new capital. At that point, painful decisions will begin: asset sales, restructuring, possibly seeking a strategic investor, or other reorganization options.

The potential damage in the worst-case scenario could surpass the consequences of the FTX collapse. FTX was a centralized exchange with a specific user base. Strategy is a holder of a huge share of the Bitcoin supply. The release of this amount of cryptocurrency onto the market under pressure could deal a severe blow to trust and asset prices, triggering a wave of sales that would absorb the entire black liquidity market for crypto assets and create a shock far beyond the scope of a single company.

#BTC #ETF