What is the recent market outlook for $LIGHT? Let's discuss some key short-term risks this project may face.

**High-Risk Warning (★★★★★)**

First is the unlocking sell pressure, which is a Damocles sword hanging overhead. The token lock-up periods for the team and institutions will expire by September 2026, at which point approximately 1.26 billion tokens will flood into the market, accounting for 30% of the total supply. The circulation rate will jump from the current 10.25% directly to over 40%, and such a drastic increase in supply is likely to trigger a price correction. This time window around September 2026 should be closely monitored.

Next is liquidity risk. Currently, the average daily trading volume is only between $50 million and $80 million. Imagine the slippage during large orders—usually over 5%. In December 2025, a large wallet transfer caused a flash crash, with a 24-hour liquidation amount reaching $16.17 million. If Bitcoin suddenly crashes, tokens like LIGHT could easily face liquidity exhaustion, making it difficult to stop losses at that point.

There is also the risk of technical implementation. The security of off-chain data in the RGB protocol depends on the project's infrastructure, which theoretically could be tampered with. The adaptation with the Lightning Network is still in testing, and the mainnet has been running stably for less than six months. If this ecosystem is surpassed by competitors like Stacks or RSK in the Bitcoin Layer 2 space, its value will need to be significantly reassessed.

**Medium-Risk Points (★★★★)**

Market correlation is very strong—correlation coefficient with Bitcoin exceeds 0.85, meaning when Bitcoin drops, LIGHT often amplifies the decline, roughly 1.5 to 2 times. Regulatory issues are also a concern; Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions already face controversy over compliance. If multiple countries start restricting off-chain asset transfers, project operations could be severely hampered. Plus, there’s competition from Stacks’ smart contracts, native Lightning Network projects, RSK, and others.

**Possible Short-Term Movements**

In the short term (next 1-4 weeks), the price is likely to fluctuate within the range of $0.65 to $1.00.

Key support levels are at $0.65 (a previously dense trading area) and $0.60 (a rebound zone from historical lows). Resistance levels are at $0.80 (short-term moving average resistance) and $1.00 (psychological barrier and the zone of concentrated sell pressure before unlock).

My probability estimates are as follows—there’s a 60% chance of repeatedly testing within the $0.65-$0.80 range, waiting for Bitcoin to give a clear direction; a 30% chance that if Bitcoin breaks above $92,000, LIGHT could rebound to test the $0.90-$1.00 level; and a 10% risk that if Bitcoin drops below $89,000, LIGHT might bottom out at a lower range of $0.55-$0.60.

Overall, this asset is highly volatile in the short term, and close attention to Bitcoin’s movements is essential.