Technical analysis in cryptocurrency trading is actually like a map. But the usefulness of this map is not in accurately predicting what will happen in the next second, but in helping you identify where the probability of making money is higher, while controlling risks.

Many beginners are obsessed with finding "divine indicators," but end up trapping themselves in a dead end of indicators. Experienced traders, on the other hand, keep it simple—they only master the combined use of a few core indicators. The key is to understand the market sentiment changes behind these indicators and to filter signals through multiple layers, minimizing losses caused by false or exaggerated fluctuations.

Moving average systems are the most direct tools for trend analysis. For crypto trading, focusing on the 30-day and 60-day moving averages is enough, as they represent medium-term and long-term average cost levels. When the price is above the 30-day moving average, and the 30-day moving average is above the 60-day moving average, it indicates a bullish pattern. Trading strategies should revolve around buying on dips. Conversely, it indicates a bearish trend.

The most reliable buy signals often appear like this: in an upward trend, when the price falls back to the 30-day or 60-day moving average and is supported, with trading volume significantly decreasing (indicating weak selling pressure), that’s an opportunity. Once the price drops below the 30-day moving average after an uptrend, the medium-term trend may weaken, and you should quickly reduce your position or prepare for a change.

Using MACD and Bollinger Bands together can filter out chaotic oscillations and capture the key moments when the trend starts. The real value of MACD lies in the "divergence" signal, which is more important than golden or death crosses. If the price hits a new high but the MACD DIF line does not follow suit and also makes a new high, it forms a "top divergence"—a very strong risk warning.