A leading research team from a major exchange recently released a specialized analysis of prediction markets, covering popular assets like Space and others. I also participated a while ago and earned a platinum level badge. Recently, seeing the market open, I decided to give it a try.

One interesting aspect of prediction markets is trading during the late stage and on low-probability events—these kinds of assets actually have financial management properties. You can imagine scenarios like "Will the Moon hit the Earth in 6 months?" It sounds absurd, but that's how the trading mechanism works.

Here's the question: Is the price of 99 yuan worth jumping in? Honestly, no. The annualized return can't beat government bonds, so it's not interesting.

What about 97 yuan? That price point is much more interesting. In comparison, the yield is more attractive, and that's a level worth paying attention to. The core of prediction markets is to find opportunities where prices are misaligned.