#TrumpLaunchesStrikesonVenezuela

The events of January 3, 2026, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, represent a paradigm shift in both geopolitical relations and market dynamics. The capture and extraction of Nicolás Maduro to the U.S. to face narcoterrorism charges have created a vacuum in Caracas and a high-stakes "regime change" scenario that markets are currently pricing in real-time.

1. View on the Escalation

This is the most aggressive application of the Monroe Doctrine (which President Trump has colloquially rebranded as the "Donroe Doctrine") in a century. By bypassing Congressional notification and utilizing a massive air and special forces operation, the administration has signaled a "results-first" foreign policy.

The Power Vacuum: While Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has claimed the presidency in Maduro's absence, the U.S. intent to "run" the country during a transition suggests a potential military or administrative occupation.

Global Friction: The escalation has drawn sharp condemnation from China and the UN, who view it as a violation of sovereignty. Conversely, allies like Israel and some domestic Australian leadership have welcomed the removal of the Maduro regime.

2. Impact on Global Markets As trading begins today, Monday, January 5, expect a "Geopolitical Risk Premium" to be baked into assets immediately.

Energy Volatility/Gap-up: Brent projected to hit $62–$65 on supply uncertainty.

Bearish: If U.S. majors modernize PDVSA, Venezuela's 300B+ barrel reserves could flood the market.

Equities Sector Rotation: Defense and Energy stocks up; broad indices may see "flight to safety" dips.

Bullish for US Refiners: Gulf Coast refineries are optimized for Venezuelan heavy crude and may see lower feedstock costs.

Sovereign Debt Surge in Distressed Debt: Venezuelan bonds, in default since 2017, are seeing massive speculative interest.

Restructuring: High potential for a massive debt overhaul if a pro-Western government is installed.

3. Strategic Asset Favoritism

Precious Metals & Oil (The Safety & Hedge Plays)

Gold: Usually the first beneficiary of "hot" conflicts. Expect gold to test new highs as a hedge against a potential wider Latin American or diplomatic escalation with China.

Oil: A tactical "Long" for the next 48–72 hours due to the tanker blockade and export stalls. However, be cautious of a "sell the news" event if the U.S. successfully stabilizes production quickly.

Crypto (The Macro Wildcard)

Bitcoin: Likely to behave as a "Digital Gold." If the U.S. dollar experiences volatility due to international condemnation or sanctions threats, BTC may see inflows. Additionally, Venezuela has historically been a high-usage area for crypto to bypass local inflation; a transition could lead to massive liquidations or new adoption depending on the new regime's currency policy.

U.S. Stocks (The Structural Play)

Energy/Infrastructure: U.S. companies involved in Venezuelan oil services are the primary beneficiaries of the "rebuild" narrative.

Operational successes often lead to renewed sentiment in defense spending and aerospace.