Recently, geopolitical tensions have intensified, and related risk events in major global gold-producing countries have heated up. Market risk aversion sentiment has clearly increased, with a large influx of funds into the gold market seeking protection. The logic is straightforward—when risks emerge, gold rises.

From a policy perspective, the market has fully priced in the expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to CME Fed Funds Futures data, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut in March has risen to 47.1%. Fed officials have publicly stated that inflation pressures have eased, leaving ample room for rate cuts. Lower interest rates directly reduce the holding costs of gold, providing clear support for gold prices.

On the capital side, there is even more interesting data. Global central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, slightly down month-on-month but far exceeding the average over the past decade. Meanwhile, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of over 700 tons for the entire year, with domestic related ETF holdings increasing to 247 tons. Institutional investors and allocation funds are both bullish, forming a solid bottom support.

Technical opportunities are now evident. 4306 is the current optimal entry point, as this level is on the MA20 moving average and close to the previous correction low of 4303, representing a normal pullback in the trend. On the hourly chart, after pulling back to the middle Bollinger Band, there was no effective breakdown. From a cost-performance perspective, entering here is very worthwhile.

If you want to add positions to lower costs, look at 4293. This level is the confluence of the MA60 moving average and the previous oscillation zone’s core support, forming a double support barrier. Once a pullback to this level is confirmed, the risk-reward ratio for adding positions becomes more favorable.

For risk management, keep an eye on 4275, which is the lower boundary of the recent oscillation zone and a key turning point of the upward trendline. If it effectively breaks below this level, the MA60 and MA120 may form a death cross, indicating a potential breakdown of the entire technical pattern. At that point, stop-loss measures are necessary to avoid larger losses.

Overall, the bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged, and the target range of 4385-4405 is reasonable.