Ethereum's key support today is at $3105, with resistance at $3205. If a downward break occurs, the next supports are at $3050 and $3100; a breakout above $3205 could test $3250. From the weekly chart, the overall trend remains weak, with strong resistance around $3685, and strong support downward at $2355.

**Short-term rhythm (1-7 days)**
Moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, with prices oscillating within a bearish channel. The main focus now is whether $3205 can rebound. If the resistance is too strong, prices may fall back to the $3050-$3100 range. Once $3205 is effectively broken or consolidates sideways, the situation can shift toward a more bullish stance.

**Medium-term logic (1-3 months)**
The Dencun upgrade has cut data storage costs by 90%, and the positive effects on the L2 ecosystem are beginning to show. The key variable is the staking ratio—if it can rise to 35%-40%, the reduction in circulating supply will support the price. The medium-term target is above $3685; if broken, the next target is $4165.

**Trading suggestions**
Short-term: Light positions around $3100-$3120 to try long entries, with a stop loss at $3080, targeting $3180-$3200; if resistance at $3200-$3220 holds, consider short positions with a stop at $3250, aiming to return to $3150-$3120.

Medium-term: Wait for a pullback to $3000-$3050 to build positions gradually, with a stop at $2950, targeting the $3400-$3600 range. Hold for 4-6 weeks, closely monitoring staking data and ETF subscription/redemption movements.

**Risk warning**
Keep individual positions within 15% and always set stop losses; prioritize spot trading. For derivatives, control leverage; always monitor staking ratios, L2 TVL changes, and ETF subscription/redemption information.