Energy reallocation in Asia pressures miners; BTC trades near US$ 93,740

The decision to redirect energy capacity to artificial intelligence data centers had an immediate impact on the Bitcoin network. In Xinjiang province, approximately 400,000 machines were shut down in just 24 hours, removing about 1.3 GW from the global capacity. Analysts estimate that up to 10% of the planet’s hash rate could be permanently lost, representing a structural reorganization of the mining industry.

This move shifts Bitcoin generation to operators with access to cheaper energy and higher operational efficiency, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier. For miners using the Bitmain S19 XP model, the electricity break-even point dropped from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year—a 36% reduction. Those unable to keep up with this cost compression face increasing economic infeasibility.

Technical consolidation with divergence signals

Bitcoin closed trading on Wall Street this Tuesday at US$ 93,740, slightly recovering after repeated tests around US$ 87,700. The US$ 90,000 resistance remains a critical reference, concentrating sell orders and delimiting stronger directional movements.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart reveals consistent rejections at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages. As long as the price remains below these levels, lateral continuation remains a likely scenario, with frequent support tests at lower levels.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the three-day chart shows higher lows while the price forms lower lows—a classic bullish divergence. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded significant upward movements, signaling weakening selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of reversal if additional confirmation factors emerge.

Gold at all-time highs while BTC decouples

The expected correlation between Bitcoin and precious metals has broken in recent movements. While gold and silver hit new highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto asset does not follow the same capital flow. The gold price chart over the last 90 days shows the metal near US$ 4,500 per ounce, reflecting a search for safe-haven assets. The BTC/XAU ratio suggests a possible technical compression of Bitcoin in relative value, indicating potential liquidity absorption by precious metals in risk-averse scenarios.

Reduced liquidity amplifies volatility

Recent data show that large investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. The move reflects a strategy to hedge against further corrections, gaining importance in a low-liquidity environment.

Order book depth has significantly shrunk, making the market more sensitive to smaller operations. As the year-end approaches, many traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated gains. This seasonal behavior contributes to a contraction of global liquidity and increases the probability of abrupt movements, even without new catalysts.

Without a significant volume trigger accompanying the resistance recovery, the price continues testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb supply. QCP Capital emphasizes that liquidity is likely to remain reduced during the Christmas week, potentially amplifying both continuations and quick reactions to macroeconomic data.

Miner capitulation marks a transition point

The network is experiencing a period of significant stress. A recent report indicates a 4% drop in hash rate—the sharpest since the first half of 2024—paralleling a 9% monthly retracement in Bitcoin’s price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April.

This combination forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure, eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During contraction periods over 90-day windows, the average six-month return was 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure.

Despite difficulties, at least 13 countries are already involved in mining with some degree of state support, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty. This geographic diversification tends to sustain the network even in scenarios of regional capacity reorganization.