Uniswap Outlook: After defending key support levels, signs of rebound detected; analysis of characteristics and pros and cons

Current Situation Summary: Uniswap(UNI) has stabilized after a sharp decline last week, holding above the key support level of $7.06. As of Monday, it is trading around $5.91, with strong buying sentiment detected in derivatives and on-chain indicators.

Is the Buying Sentiment Still Alive? Reading UNI’s Current State Through Data

There are notable changes in market participants’ positioning. According to CryptoQuant data, both spot and futures markets are experiencing steady buy orders from large funds. The key point is that this is not just simple low-price accumulation but meaningful accumulation at scale.

The derivatives market also shows a clear direction. According to Coinglass, UNI’s long-short ratio is 1.12, the highest in the past month. A ratio above 1 indicates that positions aiming for gains significantly outnumber those betting on declines. Especially, the funding rate(OI weighted) remains in positive territory at 0.0087%, suggesting that long holders are paying shorts, and market sentiment still leans toward resuming the upward trend after correction.

Technical Judgment: The 50-Day EMA Defense Decides Everything

On the chart, UNI tested the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement at $10.07 last week and then experienced about 25% correction. However, it found support at the 50-day exponential moving average(EMA) around $7.06 and managed to hold above it over the weekend.

Positive Scenario: If the $7.06 50-day EMA continues to hold as support, the first target becomes the daily resistance at $8.63. This level has been tested multiple times before the recent correction, and breaking through it will determine the credibility of this rebound.

Negative Scenario: If the daily close falls below $7.06, attention shifts to the next support at $6.04. In this case, the current correction could be reinterpreted as a deeper downtrend wave, requiring caution.

Current Strength as Seen Through Momentum Indicators

• RSI(Daily): 55, positioned above the neutral 50, indicating gradually strengthening upward momentum.
• MACD: Maintained the bullish crossover from last week, supporting the continuation of the short-term uptrend.

Analysis of UNI’s Character, Strengths, and Weaknesses

Character: Currently, UNI is in a ‘reorganization phase after correction.’ It is not just a simple rebound but a stage of defending key support levels and gathering energy for the next upward attempt.

Strengths: ① Successful defense of key support levels could form a reliable low ② On-chain and derivatives buy signals indicate large fund intentions ③ Technical momentum is recovering from the bottom region

Weaknesses: ① Still far from the recent high of $10.07 ② Volatility remains high until the upward trend is confirmed ③ If below $7.06, additional downside risk exists

At this moment, the market is in a tense balance between buyers and sellers, with the defense of the 50-day EMA being a crucial variable that will determine the future direction.