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Good news arriving in the early morning directly triggered a rebound in BTC. The key turning point was the resolution of the long-standing index component inclusion issue, which finally settled, providing a significant boost to overall market sentiment.
How important is this decision? JPMorgan's calculations provide an answer—excluding it could trigger passive selling pressure of between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion. Now that the risk is lifted, it's like a sword hanging over the head has been lowered.
The more core positive factor is the assurance of liquidity. Remaining in the MSCI Global Index means passive funds will continue to allocate, providing valuation support. This is crucial for the entire flywheel effect of financing to buy BTC—stock prices stabilize, financing channels stay open, and additional positions can be added. Conversely, the stability of BTC prices feeds back into stock prices, forming a positive cycle.
What is the biggest concern? It's that vicious cycle—stock prices fall due to index adjustments, financing is hindered, forcing selling of coins, BTC prices drop, and stock prices fall again. Now, this risk chain has been broken, and the balance sheet can stay stable.
From an institutional perspective, this is equivalent to a "stamp of approval" from traditional finance. No longer viewed solely as an investment fund, but as an operational company, which greatly helps attract allocations from ETFs, pension funds, and other large institutions. In traditional financial terms, compliance has been improved.
However, there is still a variable—employment data that was missing during the US government shutdown is about to be released, and market volatility could be significant. In the short term, staying on the sidelines and observing is indeed the safer choice.