ETH is in a liquidation risk zone: $1.369 billion long positions hanging at the $3115 level

According to the latest news, Ethereum is currently at a quite sensitive price level. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $3,115, the cumulative long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.369 billion; conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,435, the cumulative short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.222 billion. This means that whether moving up or down, ETH faces significant liquidity shock risks.

Market Structure Behind Liquidation Data

Bidirectional risk is relatively balanced

From the liquidation data, ETH’s long and short liquidation intensities are basically balanced. The $1.369 billion long liquidation strength on the downside is slightly higher than the $1.222 billion short liquidation strength on the upside, reflecting that current market long positions are relatively concentrated.

Considering ETH’s current price at $3,284.22, with a buffer of about $169 before reaching the downside liquidation threshold at $3,115, longs have approximately 5.1% downside tolerance. On the upside, with a threshold at $3,435, there is about $151 of buffer, or roughly 4.6% upside tolerance.

Comparison with historical liquidation data

According to historical records of related information, ETH’s liquidation data has shown recent large fluctuations. Data from January 5th indicate that if ETH drops below $3,000, long liquidation strength reaches $1.122 billion; if it breaks above $3,300, short liquidation strength reaches $794 million. This suggests that for every increase of over $100, short liquidation strength significantly increases, indicating that the market’s shorting force on the upside is strengthening.

Market Sentiment Signals Should Not Be Ignored

Accelerated withdrawal signals risk

In the past 24 hours, CEXs have a net outflow of 129,100 ETH, with Binance accounting for 123,200 ETH. Such large-scale withdrawals usually reflect two situations: one, investors are optimistic about the future market and transfer funds to cold wallets for long-term holding; two, investors are worried about the market and are proactively avoiding risks.

Funding rates indicate rising bearish sentiment

More notably, the funding rates on major CEXs and DEXs show that the market is beginning to tilt towards bearishness again. This contrasts with ETH’s recent strong rally. ETH has gained 10.79% over 7 days, but market sentiment is turning cautious. This divergence often indicates that upward momentum may weaken.

Risk Assessment of Current Price Position

ETH is currently at a relatively neutral but high-risk position. Breaking through in either direction could trigger large-scale liquidations, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis. This also explains why, after a big rally, market sentiment turns cautious—investors are weighing risks and rewards.

Key Focus for Follow-up

Based on current market signals, key areas to monitor include:

• Whether ETH can hold above $3,300, which is a critical trigger point for short liquidations
• Whether withdrawal sentiment continues to intensify; sustained large withdrawals may indicate a bottom or top
• Trends in funding rates, whether bearish sentiment further strengthens
• The movement of Bitcoin, as BTC usually provides important reference for ETH

Summary

ETH is at a delicate equilibrium point, with $1.369 billion in long liquidation strength and $1.222 billion in short liquidation strength both capable of triggering intense market volatility. Against the backdrop of accelerating withdrawals and bearish funding rates, the market is re-pricing risk. Whether chasing highs or bottom-fishing, traders need to fully consider the hidden danger of liquidation. The next key focus is whether ETH can break above $3,435 or find support at $3,115. The market’s next move will depend on the balance of bullish and bearish forces and the sufficiency of liquidity.