#以太坊大户持仓变化 🔍 Market Signals Behind the Fed's 2026 Rate Cut Expectations

The recent indication from Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran of a 100 basis point rate cut in 2026 has sparked widespread discussion in the market. This is not just a policy hint but more like an early market tone-setting—so, why release such signals ahead of time?

$BTC $ETH $XRP

**The details are quite intriguing**: This official previously voted alone at the December meeting in favor of a 50 basis point aggressive rate cut, and now he’s directly revealing the 2026 scenario in advance. The logic is clear—either the economic fundamentals have risks they haven't seen, or it’s an early move to set the stage for liquidity easing.

**Three perspectives on this matter**:

First is economic expectations. Rate cuts usually don’t happen without reason—what does a 100 basis point move imply? Everyone knows. If the economic outlook for 2025-2026 is truly so optimistic, why release such an aggressive signal 18 months early? The underlying recession concerns cannot be ignored.

Second is market pricing. Currently, market expectations for a 2026 rate cut vary (25, 50, or 100 basis points), and this official statement essentially endorses the most aggressive expectation. This will recalibrate the entire asset pricing system, especially assets most sensitive to long-term liquidity expectations.

Third is historical patterns. Looking at data: whenever the Fed signals an early rate cut, Bitcoin’s average gain in the following 12 months reaches as high as 380%. This is not coincidence but a natural transmission of liquidity expectations to risk assets.

**Liquidity chain is being reconstructed**:
The current strategic logic is as follows—2025 US Treasury yields begin to weaken → true liquidity easing in 2026 → global funds seek yields → cryptocurrencies, as highly elastic assets, are repriced. Smart investors are already repositioning, shifting from traditional safe-haven assets to highly liquid alternatives like Bitcoin.

**How to interpret this opportunity?**
Rather than obsessing over whether to buy the dip now, it’s better to understand the underlying logic—every policy shift by the Fed triggers asset reallocation. $BTC has broken out of its long-term downtrend channel, and $ETH, based on stable staking yields, is waiting for confirmation of a liquidity turning point. The early exposure of the 2026 rate cut expectation, to some extent, signals that this turning point is approaching.

The key is not chasing the rally but understanding the trend. The policy stance has been clarified, market pricing is adjusting, and now it depends on who can interpret this signal correctly.