#数字资产行情上升 ETH is at a crossroads again? Warnings are flashing across technical, on-chain, and macro dimensions

(1-hour K-line analysis | January 7, 2026)

**The technical outlook is clear**

Looking at ETH on the 1-hour chart, consecutive bearish candles have formed. The latest close at 3204.86 has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (3250.87), now hugging the lower band (3201.30). What does this mean? Short-term selling pressure is accelerating—one word: weak.

The moving average system provides a clearer signal. MA7 has fallen from 3247.10 below MA30 (3248.06), and the EMA has also experienced a death cross. The 1-hour technicals have turned hostile. What about MACD? The green histogram is expanding, DIF and DEA are both crossing below zero, indicating the downtrend is not over yet.

The key support zone is between 3200 and 3180—this is the last line of defense for bulls. If this level is broken with increased volume, the downside space will truly open up.

**On-chain data reveals hidden signals**

What have whales been up to recently? Monitoring data shows that in the past 6 hours, several large holders transferred about 120,000 ETH to major exchanges. This action strongly suggests potential selling pressure.

Perpetual contracts are even more interesting. While prices are falling, open interest is rising, indicating that bears are aggressively piling up positions. This game has entered a heated phase. Funding rates have turned negative, with several platforms’ ETH funding rates dropping to -0.02%. The market sentiment is clearly pessimistic.

**Macro backdrop amplifies the pressure**

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes signaled a “delay in rate cuts,” putting risk assets worldwide under pressure. In the Ethereum ecosystem, competition among Layer 2 solutions is fierce, causing a noticeable short-term capital outflow. Data from institutional players also paints a sobering picture—many funds are reducing their ETH holdings and shifting toward safer cash assets.

**My perspective**

Technical breakdown, on-chain selling pressure accumulating, and bearish macro sentiment—these three factors together suggest ETH is likely to test the 3180-3150 support zone in the short term. If it cannot hold above 3250 (middle Bollinger band) during a rebound, this correction cycle could extend further.

As for specific actions? I’ve already moved my stop-loss levels higher to manage risk. I plan to open short positions in batches around 3230-3250, with a stop at 3280, targeting 3160. If volume breaks below 3180, the case for chasing shorts becomes even stronger.

**A reminder**

Market panic can indeed create opportunities, but the risk of bottom-fishing on the left side is real—like trying to catch a blade with your bare hands. Strictly adhere to stop-loss rules, keep enough ammunition, and wait until the right-side signals are clear before making big moves. The market is always there; there’s no need to fight your own capital. $ETH