Just saw this news: the US Supreme Court may rule on Friday that the tariff policy has legal flaws, and the market immediately went into a frenzy, with warnings of "sharp declines" everywhere. As a trader who has been monitoring the front lines and navigating various information channels for a long time, I think it's time to calm down and analyze this situation.

First, let's talk about the news itself—it's indeed significant, with a 78% probability hanging over it. If it is truly deemed illegal, there could be refund expectations on a theoretical level, which could have a substantial impact on market sentiment. However, there's a detail worth noting: some analysts suggest that the refund scale could involve 600 billion, but many in the community are questioning this number, feeling it's exaggerated. This precisely indicates that the market itself is digesting and even doubting this information—not falling into collective irrational panic.

I checked on-chain data, and interestingly, large funds haven't shown obvious signs of panic in the past couple of days. The token holdings on exchanges remain relatively stable, and the open interest ratios on derivatives haven't shown extreme imbalance. What does this mean? It suggests that the "smart money" is still in the game, possibly waiting silently for the right opportunity.

History teaches us a pattern: before major rulings are finalized, the market often moves in a "pre-expected" manner—initially dropping before the news is announced, and once the result is out, it tends to be exhausted of bad news and start rebounding. Many analysts see this as a contrarian signal, and I agree with that logic. Don't forget, the crypto market often runs counter to most people's expectations.

My personal judgment is this: before Friday, the market is likely to remain volatile or even be shaken out by various voices. But once the ruling is officially announced, regardless of the outcome, increased volatility often presents a good entry point. Don't rush to sell during the dip; key support levels are worth considering for staggered buying on dips. If it doesn't dip below and instead rises, that indicates strong market resilience, and the subsequent trend will be worth looking forward to.

Finally: don't get carried away by clickbait headlines. Keep an eye on the progress of the ruling, but more importantly, watch the real on-chain fund movements. Practice good risk management, keep some liquidity ready, and when volatility truly arrives, that's when your trading skills are tested. Remember this—news is at best a matchstick; on-chain fund flows are the fuel that determines how fiercely the fire burns. Stay calm, and opportunities will come naturally.