#2026年比特币价格展望 2026 marks the beginning of the year, and the US stock market performance is not very promising — the S&P 500 has been declining from its high at the end of 2025, mainly due to fears triggered by unemployment data.

The latest data shows that the November unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four and a half years. It has jumped from 3.5% at the start of the year, a significant increase. Job vacancies are also shrinking; now there are only 0.91 job openings per unemployed person, indicating that the hiring market has cooled down noticeably. Once these signals appeared, investors began to worry about a recession, leading to widespread sell-offs.

Why is the unemployment rate rising? The reasons are quite complex. On one hand, tariff policies have increased corporate costs, reducing hiring intentions; on the other hand, although AI hype has boosted tech stocks, demand in other industries remains weak, causing the growth of job opportunities to slow down. The Federal Reserve, at the end of 2025, tried to stabilize employment by cutting interest rates consecutively, but further easing in 2026 has limited room. The market has started to worry about "stagflation."

Historically, rising unemployment rates are often a leading indicator of recession. Although it hasn't reached a collapse level this time, in the context of high valuations, the US stock market is particularly sensitive to bad news, and short-term volatility will intensify. What are the key points for the future? If unemployment continues to hit new highs, the stock market may face deeper adjustments; but if January's employment data shows a rebound, market sentiment could improve.

Investors should keep a close eye on this labor market signal. When risks increase, it’s necessary to allocate defensive assets. $BTC