In the past two years, institutional influx has changed everything. The strategies that once allowed us to earn passively are now potentially causing accounts to lose money.

Experienced traders around me have recently been doing one thing—liquidating altcoin positions and holding onto mainstream coins. This is no coincidence. The four-year cycle myth that worked for four years has surprisingly failed this time. The price increase after Bitcoin halving is hardly worth mentioning compared to history, and the altcoin season has completely disappeared.

Since 2017, I have been observing this market. Honestly, this time feels completely different. Since institutional funds from ETFs flooded in, the underlying logic of the market has changed entirely.

I want to share some of my thoughts on 2026 and how to respond to this new situation.

**Is the traditional cycle theory really outdated?**

We have to face reality: that classic four-year cycle theory is losing effectiveness. It was very effective in Bitcoin’s early days; each halving would trigger a huge shock on the supply side. But now? Bitcoin’s market cap is enormous, and the halving’s impact on supply is relatively insignificant compared to the entire market.

Looking at this cycle, after halving, it only rose to $126,000, which is much weaker than previous rounds. And what about altcoins? They are basically stagnant, a far cry from the crazy altcoin seasons we remember.

The driving force has shifted—no longer is it the cyclical halving event, but macro liquidity taking center stage. The Fed’s rate cuts and the global capital environment are the real drivers behind Bitcoin’s price.