Recently, I heard an interesting point: instead of predicting the probability of an event happening by looking at news, it's better to observe the market order book. At first glance, this sounds a bit mystical, but upon closer reflection, it’s actually already happening in reality.

Lately, I’ve been paying attention to a project that’s quite interesting. It operates on the Solana chain and is essentially a prediction market platform. But it doesn’t follow the conventional route; instead, it directly integrates leverage mechanisms, supporting up to 10x leverage trading.

This is where it gets interesting. Traditional prediction markets allow users to bet on whether an event will happen at a 1:1 ratio, but this project allows users to participate with leverage—you can use less capital to place larger bets. What does this mean? It means the most certain expectations in the market will be amplified, while the least certain ones will be suppressed.

In other words, this order book itself becomes a real-time probability machine. If you want to know how likely the market thinks a certain event is to occur, you don’t need to look at various analysis reports; just observe the leverage configurations and capital flows to read it directly.

This design approach indeed reflects a new way of thinking in crypto markets regarding prediction products—using incentive mechanisms to continuously calibrate true expectations among market participants.