BTC Dominance in 2025: How to Read the Bitcoin Dominance Indicator and Build Trading Strategies

What is happening with Bitcoin dominance now

As of early 2026, Bitcoin’s dominance accounts for 55.85% of the total crypto market capitalization, according to the latest data. This indicator reflects the strength of the first cryptocurrency and its influence on the movements of alternative assets. When Bitcoin’s market cap grows faster than other tokens, investors feel increased demand for “safe” assets. Otherwise, capital begins to seek its way into risky coins.

How Bitcoin dominance is calculated and why it is needed

The formula is quite simple:

BTC Share = Bitcoin Market Capitalization ÷ Sum of all crypto asset capitalizations × 100%

This indicator serves as a market sentiment barometer. High values indicate conservative trader behavior, ready to “go on defense.” Low values signal active speculation, with investors rushing into new projects and meme coins.

Traders monitor this indicator for several purposes:

• Determining the cycle phase: is it the “Bitcoin season” now or is a “bull market” forming
• Identifying entry and exit points
• Assessing volatility and portfolio risk
• Capital rotation between assets

Where to watch the BTC dominance chart

Analysts have several sources of real data:

• TradingView — look for the ticker BTC.D on the platform’s main page
• CoinMarketCap — the global charts section contains a complete archive of historical values
• CoinGecko — the market capitalization tab is always up to date

When interpreting the chart, pay attention to three main scenarios:

1. Uptrend — investors concentrate capital in Bitcoin, leaving alt projects
2. Downtrend — a mass rotation begins in favor of eth, solana, and other tokens
3. Sideways movement — the market remains uncertain, participants await a signal

Bitcoin dominance forecasts for the year ahead

The analytical community is divided into several camps regarding the trend of dominance:

Scenario of rising to 58–62%:

• Possible during an economic crisis or adjustment of investment appetite
• Investors will return to BTC as “digital gold”
• Small and medium projects will suffer from capital outflows

Scenario of decreasing to 38–42%:

• Realized with the emergence of new trends (AI ecosystems, Layer 2, DeFi innovations)
• Active revival of meme coin trading, as in 2021
• Capital inflows into Solana, Polygon, and Arbitrum ecosystems

Intermediate scenario (current state):

• Dominance remains in the range of 50–56%
• Balance of power between the main asset and alt tokens
• The market remains uncertain, awaiting a decisive event

How altcoins react to changes in Bitcoin dominance

The relationship between the dominance chart and the price movement of alt tokens is distinctly pronounced:

When BTC share in market cap increases:

• Altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin rises
• Liquidity exits secondary coins
• Requirements for margin and volatility increase
• Spreads between bid and ask widen sharply

When BTC share decreases:

• The start of an “alt rally” — mid-cap coins can give x3–x5 in weeks
• Liquidity flows into ecosystems and new ICOs
• The so-called altseason begins
• Traders talk about a “paradigm shift” and searching for “new Bitcoins”

Historically, altseason begins when dominance drops below 45%. During such windows, young tokens show the most impressive gains.

Practical tools for traders

Principle 1: The dominance trend is the main signal If the indicator is rising — reduce positions in alts, consolidate in BTC or stablecoins. If it is falling — prepare to enter promising tokens.

Principle 2: Catch divergences When Bitcoin’s price loses value, but its share in cap is growing — this indicates that alts are under strong pressure. This is a moment for cautious entry or full exit from risky positions.

Principle 3: Combine with classic indicators Use RSI, MACD, support-resistance levels, trading volumes. Bitcoin dominance is an additional layer of analysis, not a complete trading system.

Principle 4: Take profits at peaks When dominance hits record lows and alts are soaring — this is the top of altseason. Hurry to lock in profits: such periods rarely last more than a few months.

Summary: why Bitcoin dominance will remain in focus

Understanding the dynamics of Bitcoin dominance is a key skill for any market participant. This indicator helps navigate cyclical movements, plan capital rotation, and avoid major mistakes.

In the context of growing interest in meme coins, Web3 ecosystems, and DeFi innovations in the upcoming period, the Bitcoin dominance chart will remain the main compass for determining the current market phase. Traders will continue to monitor this indicator alongside price and volatility of the main asset.

Answers to key questions

At what level does a real altseason begin? Massive altcoin growth usually starts when dominance drops below 45%. But the most impressive gains are observed in the 35–40% range.

Can dominance fall below 30%? History shows that this has not happened. But with explosive growth of Layer 2 ecosystems (Layer 2) and major alt projects, it is theoretically possible.

Does dominance work as an independent trading signal? Yes, but only in combination with other tools — Bitcoin price, volumes, trend indicators. Use it as a filter, not as a universal entry-exit signal.