توقعات اجتماع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في نهاية الشهر: هل يمكن لضعف سوق العمل أن يدفع لمزيد من خفض الفائدة؟

【Chain Article】The recently released employment data provided economists with the clearest labor market signal in three months—previously, the government shutdown had disrupted the data release schedule. Now there’s a question looming: the unemployment rate has hit a new four-year high.

What does this data indicate? On the surface, the labor market is indeed weakening. But interestingly, this weakness precisely confirms the market’s earlier expectations for rate cuts by the end of 2025. However, the current data is not yet enough to make traders anxious—at least not enough to support the rationale for initiating a new round of rate cuts this month.

So the focus next falls on the Federal Reserve’s month-end meeting. If the data continues to weaken, rate-cut room may be opened up; conversely, if the labor market stabilizes, the Federal Reserve won’t be in such a hurry. For those looking to grasp policy expectations, this is indeed worth watching closely.