#美联储政策 When I saw this news, the first thing that came to mind was the replay of the 2018 cycle. The Federal Reserve's policy shift is always a watershed for the market, and those of us who have experienced several cycles understand this logic well.

Jeff Mei's analytical framework is actually quite clear—two very different scenarios are laid out before us. If in Q1 2026 the Federal Reserve chooses to hold steady and keep interest rates high, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000; this would be the fate of risk assets in a tightening environment. I’ve seen this too many times—when liquidity dries up, all high-risk assets have to give way.

But here’s a key turning point—the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on December 1st and started the so-called "Reserve Management Purchase" plan. Many in the industry regard it as an invisible QE, with $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds purchased each month, which is equivalent to continuously injecting blood into the market. This is the real game-changer.

If this liquidity injection continues into Q1, the scenario changes completely. Bitcoin could surge to $92,000–$98,000, and Ethereum, benefiting from ecosystem improvements, could reach $3,600. Coupled with over $50 billion in ETF funds and ongoing institutional accumulation, this creates an upward force.

History has taught me one thing: it’s not interest rates themselves that determine the trend, but the market’s expectations of liquidity. The core question now is—how far can the Fed’s RMPs plan go? The answer to this question will determine the overall market rhythm moving forward.