#预测市场 Seeing the data on Polymarket, I was reminded of a recent conversation with a few friends. Everyone was discussing Bitcoin; some excitedly said, "The probability of dropping below 80,000 is only 9%, which shows the market is optimistic," but hearing this made me feel more calm instead.

Predictive probabilities are interesting in themselves—they reflect market sentiment but not market truth. A 9% chance of dropping below indicates that 91% believe it won't happen, and such consensus is often the most worth warning against. I've seen too many times that when market sentiment is at its strongest, it's also when risks are most easily overlooked.

Rather than tracking these real-time probability fluctuations, I suggest you consider a few questions: What percentage of your funds are allocated to Bitcoin? Does this proportion match your risk tolerance? If the price drops from the current level to 75,000 or even lower, will your overall asset allocation be affected?

In the long run, extreme market emotions are often noise. Sound asset management is never about betting on the right direction but about controlling positions reasonably and preparing psychologically so you can calmly handle various possibilities. The current market sentiment is indeed somewhat optimistic, but this precisely reminds us to review whether our allocations are still sufficiently balanced.