Recently, the market has indeed heated up. How significant is the Federal Reserve's policy shift this round? The total interest rate cut of 150 basis points for the year directly exceeds Wall Street's previous highest expectation (125bp), making the magnitude quite remarkable.

First, let's clarify what this number represents. 150bp equals a 1.5% reduction. The current federal benchmark interest rate is between 5.25% and 5.50%. At this pace, it is expected to fall roughly to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of the year. For crypto assets, this is indeed significant—risk assets that have been suppressed by high interest rates for a long time finally have some room to loosen.

Many voices in the market are already comparing this to the 2021 bull run, saying "history is repeating itself." But a closer look reveals that the policy environment this time is quite different.

The bull market from 2020 to 2021 was characterized by zero interest rates and unlimited quantitative easing. The liquidity was unprecedented, with funds rushing across all risk levels, and even junk coins could increase tenfold. Even if the Fed remains dovish this time, there is no mention of returning to zero interest rates. More importantly, the logic behind the rate cuts is entirely different—last time it was "countering pandemic shocks," this time it is "responding to economic slowdown."

Data speaks: the current US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, and Wall Street analysts predict it could reach 6% by the end of the year. Corporate layoffs have hit a new high in the past year. This indicates that rate cuts are essentially a "stopgap" measure rather than a welfare policy to stimulate economic expansion. In this context, investors' risk appetite will be relatively restrained and not chase various tokens indiscriminately as in 2021.

From this perspective, the current structure is more akin to "selective rise" rather than "broad rally." Bitcoin, as the most mature crypto asset, has fundamental and policy support; but whether smaller tokens can follow the rise depends on their technological progress and real-world application. Picking good tracks and projects is much more practical than blindly going all-in.