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Since October last year, the market has been gradually declining amid repeated fluctuations. Many people's strategies still remain in a bull market mindset—every correction they can't resist buying the dip. And the result? Almost all the profits accumulated during the bull market have been wiped out.
I am glad that I haven't moved since I escaped the top. Those who couldn't hold back less than two weeks after escaping the top are now generally experiencing profit retracement. Once retracement occurs, their mentality collapses—they always want to make it back, but instead fall deeper and deeper. In the end, even the principal is gone.
This is not a coincidence; it's human nature. We are all prone to path dependence, stubborn to the point of death, only realizing the need to turn when we hit a wall. In a bear market, waiting passively for more than a year to accept reality; in a bull market, waiting another two years to be convinced. Everyone is clear about their self-deception skills.
So the real trading rule is simple: after escaping the top, at least patiently wait for half a year or even longer, until the price hits a long-term bottom. This approach not only preserves wealth but also helps refine your mentality.
Many people make five or ten times profit in a bull market, but how many can maintain several times the gains after completing a full bull-bear cycle? Very few. The reason savvy capitalists laugh last is that they quietly build positions in batches when the group is collapsing and everyone is wailing. Any blind chasing of highs is essentially setting a landmine for their own future.
Historical data shows—market declines of over 50% are not rare at all. This means that even in seemingly stable upward phases, you must always be prepared for deep adjustments.