The U.S. Supreme Court is currently ruling on the legal compliance of the Trump administration's tariff policies. If the court rules unconstitutional and overturns them, what impact will this have on U.S. stocks?



According to the latest analysis from Wells Fargo, if the tariffs are repealed, the projected EBIT( for S&P 500 constituent stocks in 2026 could increase by 2.4% compared to 2025. However, this benefit is not evenly distributed—different sectors will experience varying degrees of gains.

The Consumer Staples sector is expected to see a profit boost of 6.3%, while the Industrials sector could benefit by 6.2%. These two sectors stand to gain the most mainly because they are highly dependent on imports and have relatively weak ability to pass on costs, so removing tariffs can directly improve their performance. The Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors have an upside of about 4%. In contrast, the Technology) sector at 2.8(, Healthcare) at 2.3(, Communications) at 1.4(, and Energy) at 0.3( will see very limited benefits.

Interestingly, U.S. tariff revenue had surged to $187 billion in 2025), a 200% year-over-year increase(, but signs of decline have appeared since October. This indicates that market participants are actively mitigating tariff pressures through supply chain optimization.

The current market consensus is optimistic that the removal of tariffs will trigger a wave of "profit recovery." However, the Federal Reserve has issued a warning: if tariffs remain unchanged, economic growth in 2026 could slow by 0.5-1.0%, and the unemployment rate could rise by 0.5 percentage points. From this perspective, the Supreme Court's ruling almost determines the main trajectory of the U.S. stock market in 2026.
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GasFeeBarbecuevip
· 14h ago
Damn, does the consumption need to increase by 6.3%? I'm directly going all in on daily necessities concept stocks.
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NightAirdroppervip
· 01-11 02:44
Speaking of truly removing tariffs, consumer goods and industrial sectors would take off, and the tech sector wouldn't feel anything... Looking at it this way, the Federal Reserve is indeed backed into a corner. Without changing the tariff policy, the economy would be worrying. The Supreme Court's decision will directly determine the direction in 2026; the pressure is immense. --- The decline in tariffs indicates that merchants are all trying to find ways to bypass them. The $187 billion in taxes will eventually collapse. Instead of passively waiting for tariffs to be lifted, it's better to proactively reduce them. --- The 6.3% increase in essential consumer prices sounds great, but energy only rose by 0.3%... Traditional energy has truly become a chicken rib. --- So the key still depends on how the Supreme Court rules. This ruling is really more important than the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. --- The strategy of optimizing supply chains to avoid tariffs has been played out for a long time. The decline in income indicates that the policy itself is unsustainable.
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StableBoivip
· 01-11 02:42
Wow, a direct 6%+ profit margin increase in consumer goods and industrials? If that's true, I must jump on that wave of consumption!
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ChainProspectorvip
· 01-11 02:37
Oh no, both tariffs and courts, this game really is intense. Consumer and industrial sectors up by 6 points? Sounds good, but technology is only 2.8%... Isn't that implying that chip stocks are going to underperform? Supply chain optimization to avoid tariffs, companies have all learned to be smart. Should have done this a long time ago.
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TooScaredToSellvip
· 01-11 02:25
If the court's move is truly revoked, the consumer sector will take off immediately, but it seems like the tech side will have to lie flat.
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MEVHunterXvip
· 01-11 02:23
The court ruling essentially determines the ceiling for the US stock market over the next 26 years, with the consumer and industrial sectors being the true beneficiaries.
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