The U.S. Supreme Court is currently ruling on the legal compliance of the Trump administration's tariff policies. If the court rules unconstitutional and overturns them, what impact will this have on U.S. stocks?

According to the latest analysis from Wells Fargo, if the tariffs are repealed, the projected EBIT( for S&P 500 constituent stocks in 2026 could increase by 2.4% compared to 2025. However, this benefit is not evenly distributed—different sectors will experience varying degrees of gains.

The Consumer Staples sector is expected to see a profit boost of 6.3%, while the Industrials sector could benefit by 6.2%. These two sectors stand to gain the most mainly because they are highly dependent on imports and have relatively weak ability to pass on costs, so removing tariffs can directly improve their performance. The Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors have an upside of about 4%. In contrast, the Technology) sector at 2.8(, Healthcare) at 2.3(, Communications) at 1.4(, and Energy) at 0.3( will see very limited benefits.

Interestingly, U.S. tariff revenue had surged to $187 billion in 2025), a 200% year-over-year increase(, but signs of decline have appeared since October. This indicates that market participants are actively mitigating tariff pressures through supply chain optimization.

The current market consensus is optimistic that the removal of tariffs will trigger a wave of "profit recovery." However, the Federal Reserve has issued a warning: if tariffs remain unchanged, economic growth in 2026 could slow by 0.5-1.0%, and the unemployment rate could rise by 0.5 percentage points. From this perspective, the Supreme Court's ruling almost determines the main trajectory of the U.S. stock market in 2026.