2026-01-11 02:25:06

On January 11th, according to predictive market data, the probability of "military action by the US against Iran before the end of January" has reached 46%, while the probability of "taking action before the end of March" has risen to 62%.

The latest news from the White House indicates that Trump has received briefings on the relevant strike plans, but no final decision has been made yet. Notably, the Pentagon Pizza Index has recently shown a significant increase—an informal indicator often used to reflect the level of emergency mobilization, which usually signals an imminent major event.

If a geopolitical conflict actually erupts, different asset classes will perform in completely opposite ways. Let's first look at those that might strengthen. Crude oil is at the forefront. Iran has blocked the world's most critical energy transportation hub—the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes. Once war breaks out, crude oil prices could directly break through the $100 mark, potentially reaching $120 to $150. Gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, will also jump sharply at the first sign of conflict. The US dollar will see large inflows, with global investors rushing into US Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets to hedge risks. Major defense companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon will benefit directly, with their stock prices rising.

The situation with Bitcoin is more complex. It is both "digital gold" and a high-risk asset. In the initial stages of conflict, BTC may decline along with risk assets, but if the situation worsens and undermines traditional currency confidence, Bitcoin often rebounds quickly—this is a pattern repeatedly validated by history.

Conversely, the stock market will come under pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq will face uncertainty and rising energy costs that could squeeze corporate profits. Airlines and the tourism industry will be hit even harder, as rising oil prices directly eat into their margins, and war risks will also impact flight safety. Non-USD currencies will also struggle, especially those economies heavily dependent on energy imports, such as the euro and yen, which are usually sold off.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 01-11 02:53

If oil prices really hit 150, you could get rich overnight, and military stocks will directly profit without effort. --- The Pentagon Pizza Index is rising... Is this serious? --- With both war and inflation, is BTC going to fall or rise this time? --- If a real conflict breaks out, I favor energy stocks and gold; everything else might suffer. --- Trump hasn't made a decision yet, and a 62% forecast in the market is way too optimistic. --- The Strait of Hormuz is congested, and the whole world will have to pay for energy costs... Forget it, better stockpile some gold. --- The S&P 500 is bound to take a hit; playing with tech stocks at this time seems a bit reckless. --- Bitcoin is really hard to predict right now; risk assets are crashing, but its safe-haven properties might support it. --- Aviation stocks and the tourism industry are directly gg; when oil prices rise, their profits are wiped out. --- The euro and yen are about to be impacted; with the dollar surging, there’s no escape this time.

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SelfMadeRuggee

· 01-11 02:50

Oil prices breaking $100, I believe it, but this wave of Bitcoin is really hard to say. Who can tell how much it can rebound after an initial drop? --- The Pentagon Pizza Index meme made me laugh to death. It sounds so unprofessional... but we really need to keep an eye on it. --- Is it coming again? My short positions are ready. --- I've bought some gold and military stocks, just feeling tired waiting for news. --- Every time there’s a geopolitical conflict, Bitcoin becomes a gamble. I don’t dare to hold heavy positions now. --- The Euro Yen is about to suffer, and the US dollar is going to suck blood again. --- The surge in the Pizza Index is some kind of stunt... making it seem like we have to work overtime to eat pizza during meetings. --- Aviation stocks are really suffering. How could they possibly rise this wave? --- The Strait of Hormuz is a headache just thinking about it. It’s the lifeline of the global economy. --- A 62% probability sounds scary, but probabilities... are not 100%. --- I stopped believing in Bitcoin as "digital gold" a long time ago. It still depends on market sentiment.

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BlockchainWorker

· 01-11 02:36

Has the Pentagon Pizza Index gone up? Then I better jump on the bandwagon quickly; I can't miss out on gold and crude oil. --- Again with this? Military conflicts, crude oil breaking $100, Bitcoin rebounding... Is history really that predictable? I trust gold, not military stocks. --- Wait, the story about BTC initially falling and then rebounding... sounds familiar. Wasn't it the same during Iraq last time? --- If a real conflict breaks out, it's better to firmly hold USD assets. At this time, the dollar is a safe haven. --- Haha, the Pentagon Pizza Index has even resurfaced? They must be serious this time, but I still see the stock market as bearish. --- If Bitcoin gets hammered again at this level... should I add to my position or reduce it? Or wait and see? --- Bro, your analysis is so professional. The problem is, what should ordinary people do? Bottom fish gold or bottom fish BTC? --- Crude oil at $120-$150? Then the Nasdaq tech stocks are all headed for the gallows. Who would dare to touch them? --- It's true that non-USD currencies are being sold off; Europe will have to pick up the slack again. --- The mobilization index has risen, so it’s not just talk. This time, it’s really getting interesting.

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