‍#GatePlaza #Bitcoin2026 #BTC #CryptoNewYear #Supercycle

2026: Is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Officially Dead? 💀📉

Historically, 2026 was supposed to be the "Boring Bear Year." Instead, the market is doing something we’ve never seen before. We are 11 days into the year, and the "4-Year Cycle" playbook is being shredded in real-time.

Why the "Old Rules" are failing:

The $126K Trap: BTC hit an ATH of $126,000 in October 2025. In any other cycle, we’d be down 60% by now. Instead, we are holding a strong floor near $91,000–$93,000.

The ETF Wall: In just the first two trading days of 2026, Spot ETFs saw $1.1 billion in net inflows. This isn't retail FOMO; it's institutional rebalancing.

The "Halving Dampening": As Bitwise recently noted, the halving's impact on supply is becoming "half as important" every cycle. The "Supply Shock" is being replaced by "Demand Shocks" from corporate treasuries and pension funds.

The 2026 Outlook: We aren't seeing a "blow-off top" or a "crypto winter." We are seeing a Sustained Steady Boom. Analysts from Grayscale and Fundstrat are already targeting $150,000+ by the end of this year.

Is the cycle dead, or are we just in a "Supercycle" that will eventually crash harder? I'm personally watching the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill hearing on Jan 15. That could be the catalyst that sends us to $100k—or back to $80k.

What’s your move? HODL through the "new normal" or waiting for a 2022-style crash that might never come? 👇