One of the most heartbreaking prediction market trades I've seen this month.

For a while, many people were spreading the word: following trending coins on prediction market platforms = stable arbitrage. Many traders were attracted by this "consensus" and decided to try it themselves.

One gentleman did just that—he heavily invested at the $0.98 level, pouring in $21,500 all at once. Looking at the market situation, a 98% probability seemed almost certain, how could it possibly go wrong?

And yet? The unexpected still happened.

This trade painfully taught people: no matter how high the win rate in prediction markets, it can't change the remaining 1-2% possibility. When leverage and positions are large enough, even extremely unlikely events can instantly wipe out the entire profit. High probability ≠ zero risk, and this is a lesson worth always remembering.