2026-01-12 00:27:04

From the end of March to early April, the market is very likely to hit the bottom around this time window. Of course, this judgment has a premise—assuming no unexpected events disrupt the current market pattern. But this is precisely where black swan events are most unpredictable; they are inherently unforeseeable. Therefore, although the fundamentals support the bottom judgment, traders should still leave enough room to respond to sudden risks.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MysteryBoxOpener

· 14h ago

The bottom discussion is back again, and it's always the same every time haha --- When a black swan appears, it directly slaps in the face. Still, it depends on how things develop afterward --- Leaving enough risk margin is really important; going all-in is the hard truth --- Bottom in March or April? Last time you said that, I lost 30% of my capital --- Fundamentals don't support anything; unexpected events are the real boss

View OriginalReply0

SelfCustodyIssues

· 15h ago

That thing at the bottom... Even if you tell everyone, no one will believe it. When a black swan comes, everything is over. --- The fundamentals are at most just a reference; the real profits always come from the unexpected. --- It's true that leaving enough risk margin is important, but most people simply can't do it. How about you? --- Bottoming out in April? Just listen and don't take it seriously. I don't believe it. --- It's true that black swan events are unpredictable, so why bother trying to predict the bottom? --- Instead of guessing the bottom, it's better to think about what to do if it drops 50%. That's the real deal.

View OriginalReply0

StableNomad

· 15h ago

ngl the "bottom is here unless it isn't" takes always crack me up... statistically speaking late march/early april does look decent on the charts but honestly? reminds me of UST in May when everyone was calling the floor and then... yeah. the risk-adjusted returns don't justify going all in, not when black swans don't announce themselves beforehand lmao

Reply0

TommyTeacher1

· 15h ago

Bottom? Uh... feels like I say that every time, haha --- Black swan events are unpredictable; that's the real truth --- Fundamentals are fundamentals, but unexpected risks are the real boss --- Leave enough room to respond; it's easy to say but hard to execute, everyone --- Here we go again, "very likely"... I've heard this phrase too many times --- Bottoming out in early April? Let's see if another surprise event comes first --- Premise assumptions are useless; black swan events love to appear at this time

View OriginalReply0