#比特币衍生品与交割 The $23.7 billion annual big delivery has just fallen, and I see this rhythm very clearly. Looking back at the delivery data over the past two years, the pattern is quite solid: the "cage" suppression period before delivery is often accompanied by narrow-range oscillations and liquidity drying up. After expiration, gamma hedging releases, volatility suddenly amplifies, and a one-sided trend accelerates.

The most interesting comparison is between the December 2024 $19.8 billion delivery and today’s wave—at the peak of last year's bull market, BTC shot straight to over 80,000 after settlement; this year, due to holiday liquidity being thin, the price has been firmly pinned in the 85,000-90,000 range. Based on historical experience, once the "cage" disappears, the probability of breaking through 90,000 upward is quite considerable, and some even see 100,000.

But I have to be honest: such large-scale deliveries often amplify market movements, but they also easily set traps for reversals. From a follow-trade perspective, if you are tracking certain aggressive traders, they usually increase their positions or adjust their holdings at this point. The key is to observe how they respond—whether they add to their positions in line with the trend or reduce their holdings when prices are high. Historically, some of those one-sided moves after deliveries took about ten days to fully develop, while others were just false breakouts in the first couple of days.

In the long run, volatility amplification is indeed a golden window for follow-trading, but the prerequisite is knowing the risk appetite of the traders you are following. Aggressive traders tend to gain the most during these times, but their drawdowns can also be the fiercest. My advice is to observe first and avoid rushing into full positions.