Refined economic growth forecasts: what has changed in the US estimates for 2025-2026

Ser_Liquidated · 2026-01-13T08:38:29+00:00

Fitch has revised its GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., anticipating increases of 2.1% this year and 2.0% next year, driven by newly available economic data. The agency expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and predicts inflation will reach 3.2% alongside a 4.6% unemployment rate.

Ser_Liquidated

2026-01-13 08:38:29

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Recalculation of statistics due to previously delayed reports prompted analysts to reassess the situation. The rating agency Fitch has adjusted its expectations regarding US GDP, raising forecasts for the coming years above initial estimates.

Upward Revision of US GDP Growth Forecasts

According to the agency’s new calculations, US GDP growth should reach 2.1% this year and 2.0% next year. This is a significant shift compared to previous forecasts of 1.8% and 1.9%. Such a revision is largely due to the inclusion of delayed economic data that became available after the government shutdown last year.

Expected Federal Reserve Decisions

Fitch’s leadership suggests that in the first half of 2026, the Fed may make two decisions to cut the key interest rate. Under this scenario, the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range would decrease to 3.25%. This position reflects growing expectations of monetary policy easing as inflationary pressures slow down.

Inflation and Employment: Forecast Balance

According to Fitch’s forecasts, price pressures will persist, and inflation by the end of 2026 will reach 3.2%. At the same time, the labor market is expected to demonstrate an average unemployment rate of 4.6%. This combination of indicators indicates the economy’s relative stability amid a slowdown in the creation of new jobs and a reduction in the pace of labor resource expansion.

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