Bitcoin in 2025: Bullish Trend, Critical Resistances, and Trading Opportunities

The Macroeconomic Context Supporting the BTC Movement

The current global market environment is favorably aligned toward decentralized assets like Bitcoin. Several factors converge to maintain a bullish trend in price movements:

Political uncertainty in the United States, combined with a weakened US dollar, has made Bitcoin the preferred refuge for investors seeking to protect their capital. As global economies face inflationary pressures, demand for alternative assets that preserve purchasing power grows exponentially. This phenomenon, known as “devaluation trading,” positions Bitcoin as the “digital gold” of the modern era.

Price Analysis: From $95,920 to All-Time Highs

Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,920, with a 0.95% retracement in the last 24 hours, though it maintains a weekly gain of 4.89%. This consolidation after reaching highs of $119,500 six weeks ago reveals a typical institutional accumulation pattern.

Key support levels are located at:

• $117,000: First line of defense where Bitcoin has found recurrent buyers
• $95,000-$96,000: Strong support zone currently being tested

On the upside, resistance appears in multiple layers that could trigger explosive movements:

• $124,500: Intermediate barrier with considerable volume
• $138,000: Relevant psychological and technical level
• $145,000+: Territory where new highs open up

Technical Signals Supporting Continued Bullishness

Chart analysis shows technical patterns suggesting a strong inclination toward upward movements in the short term:

Identified Bullish Formations: Technical analysts have identified classic bullish flags, double bottoms, and symmetrical triangles on Bitcoin’s daily and weekly charts. These formations historically precede breakouts toward $127,000, $138,000, or potentially $145,000.

Decisive On-Chain Indicators: On-chain metrics paint an optimistic picture. The Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow suggests that holders are in buying zones. Even more relevant: long-term holders continue accumulating BTC, with over 298,000 Bitcoin held in addresses dedicated to accumulation. This institutional and whale activity reflects confidence in the medium- to long-term price trajectory.

The short-term holder’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator shows they are in profit, a condition that often precedes price acceleration to the upside.

The MVRV Band (Market Value to Realized Value) of Bitcoin still shows room for price expansion before reaching overbought levels. The critical resistance level is positioned at $139,300.

The Seasonal Factor: Why October Remains Relevant for Bitcoin

Historically, October has been dubbed “Uptober” by the trading community. Records show that Bitcoin typically captures gains of 10% or more during this month, especially when September closes with positive momentum. Although we are already entering 2026, this seasonal trend remains analytically relevant for understanding Bitcoin’s volatility cycles.

The Institutional Narrative: Flows and Growing Demand

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has reached unprecedented levels. Bitcoin ETFs and futures markets continue to record significant capital inflows. Simultaneously, retail adoption grows steadily, consolidating Bitcoin as a globally recognized store of value.

This bifurcated demand — both institutional and retail — underscores why Bitcoin is considered a hedge against inflation and fiat currency depreciation.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Game-Changing Comparison

A comparative analysis between Bitcoin and gold reveals disparities in market capitalization. Experts suggest that Bitcoin has a bullish potential of 40% to 50% to match gold’s market cap when adjusted for volatility. This gap reflects Bitcoin’s still nascent adoption as “digital gold” compared to traditional gold, opening substantial growth opportunities.

Price Scenarios for 2025 and Future Projections

Price forecasts are divided into time cycles:

Estimates for 2025: Analysts model a range of $140,000 to $160,000 for Bitcoin during 2025, driven by post-halving cycle realizations and increased institutional penetration. These prices would represent gains of 46% to 67% from current levels.

Projections for 2026 and Beyond: Some analysts project an average price of $201,000 for 2026, supported by Bitcoin’s recognition as the primary store of value and its accelerated adoption among global investors.

These projections rest on the analysis of historical trends, macroeconomic dynamics, and the unique value proposition that Bitcoin offers: a decentralized, censorship-resistant asset with a finite supply.

The Present Moment: Consolidation and Preparation for the Next Move

Bitcoin is at a turning point. Support levels are being tested, on-chain metrics point toward institutional accumulation, and macroeconomic conditions favor assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.

Although short-term volatility will continue to characterize the cryptocurrency market, the structural outlook remains bullish. Investors conducting thorough research and positioning their portfolios considering both risks and opportunities can benefit from the upcoming movements.

Bitcoin’s cycle is far from complete. Its appreciation potential continues to attract the attention of global investors, from retail to traditional financial institutions.