Can Bitcoin surpass $100,000 in January? On-chain data suggests the truth about the market

Bitcoin prices welcomed the New Year around $95,720, with small fluctuations within a range-bound market. On the surface, there appears to be a sense of stagnation, but unraveling the data recorded on the chain reveals the possibility of a reshuffling of power dynamics beneath the market surface.

Looking at multiple indicators published by CryptoQuant, there is ongoing structural easing of selling pressure, and significant turning points are beginning to emerge in the behavior patterns of long-term investors.

Accelerating Outflows from Exchanges, Spot Market Supply Dwindling

Recent net flow tracking data shows a clear trend: the amount of BTC leaving exchanges far exceeds the amount coming in. This continued net outflow reduces the immediate supply of Bitcoin available for sale in the spot market.

Typically, this outflow pattern is interpreted as investors withdrawing assets from exchanges to hold long-term in their wallets. However, given the lack of price rebound, it suggests that buyer interest remains cautious, and liquidity constraints along with misaligned expectations of international monetary policy are suppressing demand.

Long-term Holders’ Accumulation Phase Confirmed, No Signs of Panic Selling

A more in-depth indicator to examine is the trend in supply held by long-term holders (LTH). During the adjustment phase in late 2025, negative values persisted for several months, but recently, the 30-day net change has turned positive by 10,700 BTC.

This reversal indicates that the phase of large-scale coin disposals by long-term holders has ended. Instead, it suggests a gradual return of supply to stronger hands. This pattern is typical during the transition from market top to the next phase, rather than at a market peak, and is often observed during the early stages of a correction.

Long-term Holders’ SOPR Near 1.0, Calm and Rational Selling Continues

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for long-term holders clearly reflects whether this group is selling to realize profits or dumping at a loss.

Currently, this SOPR remains stable around 1.0, indicating a neutral stance. This is solid evidence that long-term holders are neither rushing to sell nor panicking into capitulation. Historically, when this indicator stays within this range, it aligns with a phase where the market is seeking a new equilibrium after a correction.

Reaching $100,000 in January Requires New Catalysts

From a comprehensive perspective, the current market shows signs of improvement across various fronts but has yet to break out decisively. Supply-side pressures are easing, and the resilience of long-term investors is confirmed.

However, cautious demand and macroeconomic uncertainties prevent Bitcoin from escaping its range-bound pattern. To achieve a sharp rally to $100,000 in January, new positive catalysts capable of shaking market psychology are essential.

Without such catalysts, Bitcoin is more likely to steadily build a bottom within its range, focusing on laying a foundation for more sustained growth after the second half of 2026.