What impact will #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 have on the cryptocurrency market?

In the short term, it boosts risk appetite, with crypto rebounding along with the US stock market; in the medium term, it returns to fundamentals, with limited long-term effects, and caution is needed regarding leverage and liquidity risks.

1. Short-term impact (1-7 days)

- Sentiment recovery: Trade tensions ease, risk appetite increases, Bitcoin and Ethereum V-shaped rebound, ETH shows stronger resilience.
- Capital inflow: Strengthening US stocks drive crypto capital inflows, BTC back to $90,000, ETH reclaims above $3,000.
- Volatility and liquidations: Rebound accompanied by high volatility, increased liquidations in the derivatives market, leverage risks rise.
- Enhanced correlation: High correlation between BTC and Nasdaq, US stock market rhythm leads short-term crypto trends.

2. Medium-term impact (1-3 months)

- Return to fundamentals: Market focus shifts back to Fed rate cuts, ETF funding, blockchain upgrades, and other core drivers.
- Industry level: Confidence in European markets recovers, benefiting DeFi, NFT, and Web3 projects' implementation and capital inflows.
- Diminished safe-haven demand: Trade easing reduces safe-haven needs, funds shift from precious metals to risk assets, crypto benefits relatively.

3. Allocation strategies

- Short-term: Use rebounds to reduce leverage, set stop-loss at 5%-8%, focus on BTC in the $88,000-$92,000 range, ETH supported at $2,900-$3,100.
- Medium-term: Build positions gradually in mainstream coins, total position not exceeding 20%, mainly spot holdings, avoid high-leverage contracts.
- Long-term: Limited impact, continue holding **10%-15%** of core assets, add to quality sectors on dips (ETH, SOL, etc.).

4. Risk warnings

- Policy reversals: Threats of tariffs or re-escalation may trigger market corrections.
- Liquidity fluctuations: In extreme conditions, derivatives markets may face slippage and forced liquidation risks.
- Macro disturbances: Inflation rebound, changing expectations of rate cuts, and other macro factors may alter market rhythm.