【US Stock Market】Iran's prolonged conflict raises doubts about Japan and others releasing oil reserves; oil prices rise 4% (updating)

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after “ignoring IRGC Navy warnings.” According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fars News Agency quoted a military spokesperson as saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil tanker will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the United States, Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement saying that its 32 member countries agreed on Wednesday (11th) to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest ever, to address the chaos in the oil market caused by the Middle East war.

International oil prices rose 4%, with NY crude futures at $86.41 per barrel and Brent crude at $91.1.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell 412 points to 47,294, the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,787, and the Nasdaq increased 0.4% to 22,782.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI year-over-year up 2.4%, and monthly increase rising 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%. Core CPI remained at 2.5% year-over-year, with a monthly increase falling 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the surge in international oil prices due to the Middle East war.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise; Fed stance shifts hawkish? US banks warn market may be misjudging the situation; large rate cuts still possible.

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA: Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to around $70 by year-end.

【09:53】NVIDIA｜Nvidia partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell nomination before DOJ investigation concludes.

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】IEA reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI + Defense】Anthropic states its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI + ORCL】Oracle beats earnings expectations, surges 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands in stock. Trump: Will face unprecedented military consequences (updating).

$1 and below: U.S. stock market on March 10====

Tuesday: White House: U.S. did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 34; oil prices sharply narrowed losses

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, Dow turns lower. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. did not escort ships.

See U.S. stock market close:

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Iranian IRGC responds that the claim of U.S. military escort is pure lies; any actions by the U.S. and allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to US-Iran conflict; NY crude settles at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent crude drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow once surged 479 points, then retraced to close down 34 points at 47,706; S&P fell 0.21% to 6,736; Nasdaq down 1.5% to 22,061; the Golden Dragon Index, reflecting Chinese concept stocks, rose 1.96%.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be the most intense day of military actions against Iran, with the most fighters and bombers deployed. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said the U.S. is striking Iranian missile and drone vessels.

Hegseth described this as a targeted, precise strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held a meeting Tuesday to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC sources say the U.S. considers releasing 300-400 million barrels appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market; Bloomberg reports the company plans up to 11 tranches, with maturities from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche — bonds maturing in 2076 — are preliminarily priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries.

The dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.93; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9% to $5,206 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

U.S. military continues to show force. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day — the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” heavy bombers, signaling imminent large-scale air campaigns or escalation. With enemy air defenses weakened, B-52s can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions, targeting infrastructure, industrial sites, or large ground forces for sustained destruction.

Additionally, U.S. markets enter daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank Julius Baer notes that the oil market has entered panic mode, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen major changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade delays, not military blockades. However, oil supply in the Middle East could face up to 75% shutdown this week and beyond.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No substantial damage to energy infrastructure has been observed; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. Ensuring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a feasible solution. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, expecting energy prices to peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, surpassing $100.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of stock market crash by year-end increases to 35%.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. from Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil surges past $100, NY crude up 30%, with major Middle Eastern producers cutting output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging Asia-Pacific stocks into “Black Monday”; Japan and Korea down over 7%; South Korea considers oil price cap.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge fuels inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, nearing $111; Trump: Small price for victory; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; U.S. markets open one hour early at 9:30 p.m. HK time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and poor U.S. employment data caused last week’s big selloff; Dow once down 945 points to 47,009; VIX spiked 21.6% to 28.88. Dow closes down 453 points, S&P down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stocks last week, details at: 【U.S. Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln,” Brent surpasses $92, weak jobs report causes Dow to fall 453 points, Nasdaq down 1.6%.