Hormuz Crisis Continues to Escalate, Shipping Lane Faces Potential Long-Term Closure

Iran’s continuous attacks are intensifying, and the U.S. refusal to provide naval escort makes the hope of quickly restoring Strait navigation increasingly bleak

Brief Summary

Due to escalating attacks by Iran and the U.S. refusal to provide military escort for oil tankers, the Strait of Hormuz faces a long-term closure risk, potentially cutting off this critical global energy transportation route entirely.

Iran’s ongoing escalation of attacks, combined with the U.S. government’s decision not to escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, suggests that this route may remain closed for an extended period, severing the export of this vital energy corridor.

On Wednesday, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked three ships attempting to transit the route, including a Thai vessel, warning that any ship trying to cross the strait would become a target.

Later that evening, according to Iraqi port officials, two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil caught fire after being hit by projectiles in Iraqi waters far from the strait.

Gulf country officials stated that the U.S. has repeatedly refused requests from oil companies for escort services. U.S. Defense Department officials said that until Iran’s firepower threat diminishes, deploying warships into the narrowest part of the strait—about 21 miles wide—is too risky.

The U.S. military has targeted Iran’s navy, drones, and missile units in attempts to curb threats, but Iran continues to launch attacks. Additionally, underwater mines and Iranian submarines lurking beneath the surface further increase risks.

The disruption of shipping operations and the rapid potential closure of the strait are triggering global economic turmoil and pose a major military and political challenge for the Trump administration.

Shipping companies are preparing for a long-term closure of the route; even if the conflict ends, it could take a long time to resume normal navigation.

Gerry Calogiratos, CEO of Athens-based liquefied natural gas transporter Capital Clean Energy Carriers, said:

“This takes time. Not only must there be a ceasefire, but shipowners also need to be convinced that the safety risks to crews and vessels have substantially decreased. Think of the Red Sea: even six months after Houthi rebels cease fire, navigation has not returned to normal. Everything depends on security perceptions, and we are far from that right now.”

Supply Disruptions Push Oil Prices Higher

Supply disruptions have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel at times, increasing gasoline costs for consumers and severely impacting Gulf oil-producing countries still heavily reliant on oil revenues, forcing them to shut down oil fields and causing crude oil backlogs with nowhere to go.

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, warned Tuesday that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would bring catastrophic consequences to the global oil market and severely disrupt the world economy.

This is exactly what Tehran hopes for. Iran is attempting to respond to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes with military actions. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian posted on social media Monday: “Nine days after the ‘major mistake operation,’ oil prices have doubled, and the prices of various commodities are soaring.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard intelligence department sent messages to mobile users nationwide, claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz, implying that Iran has the ability to influence the global economy.

Sources reveal that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain have collectively cut oil production by nearly 7 million barrels per day.

According to UN trade agency data, about 38% of global crude oil shipping before the conflict passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are rushing to increase exports via alternative pipelines that bypass the strait, which means crude oil must bypass domestic refineries, tightening refined product markets.

Rising oil prices pose a major challenge for the Trump administration, with domestic concerns over fuel prices and inflation intensifying.

U.S. Escort Commitments vs. Military Reality

Under pressure to restore oil transportation, Trump previously stated that the U.S. and its allies would deploy warships to escort ships safely through the strait.

During a campaign event Tuesday, Trump said: “When necessary, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort oil tankers. I hope this won’t be necessary.” On Wednesday, he added that ships should normally use the strait.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said the president “is fully prepared to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz when he deems it necessary.”

However, Navy officials said they have not received any escort orders, and currently, conducting escort missions would pose huge risks to U.S. warships and commercial vessels. Some officials warned that if ships attempt to force passage, the Strait of Hormuz could become Iran’s “hunting ground”.

Iran controls the eastern coast of the strait and can deploy numerous aerial and maritime drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, and mines to threaten vessels. Officials say Iran’s anti-ship missiles are mounted on mobile launchers, with firing ranges so close that defense systems often cannot detect them in time.

Since the 1980s “tanker wars” with Iran (when the U.S. escorted oil tankers entering and leaving the Persian Gulf), Iran has upgraded its fast attack boats and unmanned maritime and aerial equipment, capable of long-range strikes against oil tankers.

The U.S. claims to have struck over 60 Iranian naval vessels during this round of conflict, but military analysts say Iran still maintains a “mosquito fleet” of small boats, both manned and unmanned.

Escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz are far more difficult than recent U.S. and allied efforts in the Red Sea to defend ships from Houthi attacks. Houthi forces have previously posed significant pressure on U.S. military and carrier groups, even causing incidents like friendly fire accidents.

Military and shipping analysts agree that escorting ships through the Persian Gulf is not only dangerous but can only accommodate a few vessels at a time.

Brian Clark, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute and former Pentagon naval oversight official, said: “The strait is too narrow, and the U.S. military has little time to respond to incoming fire. Each oil tanker might need two warships to guard against threats from the Iranian coast and nearby islands.”

“You’re too close to the shoreline; drones can reach within seconds,” he added. “This greatly increases the number of escort ships needed.”

Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday that if ordered, the military would deploy forces to carry out escort missions.

Former U.S. officials say the U.S. has the capacity to escort oil tankers but might need to redeploy ships involved in strikes against Iran. U.S. missile destroyers are the navy’s main force and central to regional missile defense.

James Fogo, director of the Maritime Strategy Center and retired Navy admiral, stated: “The issue is operational capacity—there need to be enough U.S. ships in the Gulf to perform these missions. These ships already have very demanding tasks.”

Both military and shipping experts agree that only a ceasefire can fully restore navigation through the strait. Before the conflict, over a hundred ships passed through daily. Even with U.S. escort efforts, some shipping and oil companies may hesitate to send vessels due to ongoing threats from Iran.

Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s Intelligence, said: “Some companies have stated that as long as attacks continue and the war persists, they will not take the risk.”

According to Lloyd’s Intelligence data, even if the strait reopens, the U.S. and its partners will need to clear a backlog of ships: out of over 1,000 vessels in the route, more than 600 international trade ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf waiting to depart.